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Whilst all polls are hypothetical polls the hypothetical polls that have several other hypothetical situations added in usually turn out to be inaccurate. As Sam Freedman points out why the hypothetical polling by JL Partners will be unlikely to survive first contact with reality. I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from…

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Today’s leak from Boris Johnson’s camp about having 100 backers looks like an episode of The Inbetweeners, this indicates to me Boris Johnson’s campaign isn’t going as well as he hoped. I feel confident in laying Boris Johnson in the next PM market even though I have a nagging feeling that he has the chutzpah to take it to the voters even if he loses 235 to 120 in the voting of Tory MPs. I think Boris Johnson may perform…

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It really bodes ill for the Tory party that so many adjectives about them need censoring. Whoever wins the Tory leadership contest next week it is all about how bad the Tory defeat at the next election will be, anywhere from an honourable defeat to an extinction level event defeat that makes 1997 look like a good result for the Tories. TSE

My hunch is that older Tory members, the ones that do not have an email address, are disproportionately more likely to favour Boris Johnson over other candidates, which could upset a few expectations. But this is further proof that Sir Graham Brady and the rest of the 1922 are terrible at organising things, I get the feeling they couldn’t organise a farting contest in a baked beans factory. The result of the second Tory leadership contest of 2022 could be…

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If Boris Johnson is going to be stopped becoming Tory leader and Prime Minister next week Tory MPs and members will need to see that Boris Johnson isn’t best placed to get the best Tory result at the next election, that Boris Johnson is a loser. The next election will be the first Labour v Con fight that Boris Johnson won’t be facing an elderly socialist opponent that some have accused of antisemitism. It looks like Sunak might give the…

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This could all be over by 2pm on Monday The pressure is on CON MPs not to let the next leader to be decided in a membership ballot which is good for Sunak. They’ll try to soak up enough nominations that prevents others getting to the 100 target. If it goes to a ballot then Johnson will have a better chance of winning. So that means that Tory MPs are going to be overwhelmed this weekend by efforts to get…

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Farewell then Liz Truss: 45 days, 1 mini-Budget, 1 resignation, 2 monarchs, 2 Chancellors, 3 sackings and 3 PMQs. Those setting pub quiz questions will forever be in your debt. As for the runners: Sunak: sensibly stayed away from the Cabinet. Campaign slogan: “I bloody told you so!“ Hunt: appears to be calm and a grown up. Probably the only one willing to speak (and implement) some hard truths to both the party and the country. Mordaunt: only if you…

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