politicalbetting.com

What about the first-time incumbency effect? The betting chart above on which party will win most seats at the next general election reflects the political history of the last 6 months. Most of the time until the early summer Boris Johnson looked as though he could lead the party to another victory. Then we had the difficult revelations about what happened at Number 10 Downing Street during the strict lockdowns. Johnson received a fine and so did Sunak something that…

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All three charts are from the latest Redfield & Wilson poll which was published yesterday. There are many, including me, who regard polling like this as more indicative of the current political mood in the country than voting intention surveys. Mike Smithson

There is nothing like an energy crisis with predicted soaring costs that cause politicians to look at alternative sources which in the past have been a opposed. It is my view one of the daftest decisions made by the Tories was to impose the effective ban on onshore wind in 2015. That is now being revisited and the party is divided into 2 camps – those who believe that they should continue to be opposed and those looking to expand…

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One of the things about American politics that looks very odd from a British perspective is that each of the 50 states can have very different election rules for what is the same national contest. So in the state of Georgia nobody can win an election unless they come out with 50% or more of the vote. This means that if no candidate achieves that threshold there has to be a runoff election 4 weeks later which is what is…

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The Tories are at 32% Inevitably given the way the polls have moved to LAB in the last couple of months that the party is now rated as a 67% betting chance to win most seats at the next general election In fact it was only in August that LAB went into the favourite slot in this betting market after the Tories have been up there since getting started in April 2020. I think it is far too early to…

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The Republican front-runner is just 44 Joe Biden and his party came out of the Mid Terms better than most predicted and this has reinforced the suggestions that he will seek a second term at the 2024 presidential election. To retain control of the Senate three weeks ago with possibly an increased majority was a huge achievement for the Dems but his name was not on the ballot as it would be in a White House race primary. I simply…

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Recently I worked out I had a relationship that lasted substantially fewer days than the premiership of Liz Truss, once I overcame the embarrassment of having such a short relationship I started to wonder what the future would hold for Liz Truss, the country’s shortest serving Prime Minister. There’s this market from William Hill about whether Liz Truss will still be an MP after the next general election. The economic herpes that is inflation alone makes backing No a very…

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Over the next few weeks I’ll be looking at the reasons why I’m doubtful about Labour winning a majority (which doesn’t mean I’m not laying a Tory majority), one of the reasons is Brexit. Looking at those findings from YouGov, these type of findings aren’t atypical about Brexit from various pollsters. 2% of Brits think Brexit has gone very well, whereas 7% of Brits say they have seen a UFO, so yes, more than 3 times the number of Brits…

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