Above is from the dataset for the December 14th Opinium poll which I feature to highlight one of the big uncertainties of the next election which I have referred to before – what GE2019 Tory voters are saying now. CON 49% : LAB 12% : LD 3% GRN 1%: REF 8%: DK 22% From the table above the number to focus on is the 22% saying DK. What is significant is that they are planning to vote but just this…
The PM who had no honeymoon Normally the reason that parties in government change their leader is in the hope that the new person will actually improve their position in the polls. Well as the latest Ipsos poll just out shows that simply isn’t happening with Sunak it is hard to envisage a challenge at this stage or any pressure for a replacement leader but all sorts of things can happen in politics when hundreds of government MPs can see…
If you look through the latest polls and the reporting of them you would assume that has been a massive switch of Conservative voters to LAB. So the 12% CON lead at GE2019 has now become LAB ones of 15% or more. This points to scores of gain by Starmer’s party at the next election. WRONG. This is because of the widespread polling practice of netting off and just reporting the views of those who give an indication of which…
Michelle Mone in the Lords was bad enough. What on earth possessed Cameron? It comes as no surprise to find that the VIP lane during Covid resulted in her and others making large profits from their friendships and contacts with politicians, the supply of goods fit for the purpose being purely incidental and often non-existent. Questions have been asked about what she bought with the humongous profits made and where the money has gone. What ought to be asked is…
This adds to Sunak’s problem The latest polling on the nurses strike should really worry Ministers because the scale of the backing from the public it’s really quite remarkable. The other factor that makes tonight’s survey problematic for the government is that this backing is increasing. Sunak has yet to show how effective he is in dealing with huge industrial disputes that could have great ramifications the many people. A problem is that giving special treatment to the nurses would…
Sums up the whole tournament
Inevitably after the very strong performance in the by-election yesterday the money has been going on LAB to win most seats at the next election. Certainly, the message from the December by-elections is very strong for LAB but both of them have been in seats that were already held and where the Tories were a long way behind. A better test would be in a CON held seat where the majority was under about 10k. Here the evidence from this…