LAB moves to a 72% betting chance of winning most seats
Inevitably after the very strong performance in the by-election yesterday the money has been going on LAB to win most seats at the next election.
Certainly, the message from the December by-elections is very strong for LAB but both of them have been in seats that were already held and where the Tories were a long way behind.
A better test would be in a CON held seat where the majority was under about 10k. Here the evidence from this Parliament is that LAB has not been as strong. Aside from Wakefield the main challenge has come from the LDs even in seats where LAB was in second place.
I remain to be convinced that LAB is in with a 72% chance of winning most seats.