Why we should be skeptical of the LAB leads? The above chart is based on detailed data of the GE2019 CON vote from the latest PeoplePolling survey. A big thing that I would worry about if I was a LAB strategist is the relatively small amount of the Tory vote last time that is now voting for Starmer’s party. A big driver of the don’t know/won’t vote segment could easily fall back in an election campaign. Indeed for this reason…
This year will go down as one which has seen more changes at Number ten Downing Street than just about anybody can remember. This has prompted the Manchester-based pollster Omnisis to include a question that I’ve never seen before – “Who has been the best PM of the year”? This was the outcome: Our inaugural PM Of The Year decided by the voting public. It’s a strong showing for Boris (28%), less so Truss (1%), & Rishi (19%) came in…
But at the moment there is no vacancy I have got a feeling based on absolutely nothing that the Tory leadership will come up again before the general election. Somehow I don’t see Sunak hacking it and I have been less than impressed by his performances at PMQs. Big problem he has is that his only being an MP for about 7 years and sometimes this shows. What Sunak that failed to do so far is get the polls turning…
Holyrood has been considering ca. 150 amendments to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. All the amendments must be considered and voted on in one day because the Scottish government insists the Bill be enacted before Xmas. There are many issues arising with this Bill but one – which has nothing to do with people with gender dysphoria – is worth highlighting. It is this: should men convicted of sexual offences against women, girls or children be allowed to take advantage…
The above sets out some of the latest YouGov polling on public attitudes towards the various sets of industrial action within the public sector. As can be seen the nurses and ambulance staff are highly regarded and it is going to take more than the current efforts by ministers to win public backing. What has been particularly pathetic has been the effort to try to blame Starmer for what’s happening with at least one cabinet minister regularly producing Tweets to…
Immediately after the midterms last month former President Donald Trump made his formal announcement that he will be a candidate for 2024. As the betting chart shows he moved up shortly upwards but since then the story has all been downwards. This has been mostly down to the polling and the response to his “run again” plan. Now it is just an 11% betting chance that he’ll get his old job back. In just over a year will see the…
As they say – taking on nurses is “brave” What is very clear is that people are likely to die when in normal circumstances they would have received help earlier. Quite who will get the blame for what is happening hard to say at this stage but this is a real test for Sunak. His hardline approach is fine from one perspective provided it is not your loved ones who will be affected. People who lose a close family member…