As we start World Cup Final weekend punters make it 50-50
Sums up the whole tournament
LAB moves to a 72% betting chance of winning most seats
Inevitably after the very strong performance in the by-election yesterday the money has been going on LAB to win most seats at the next election. Certainly, the message from the December by-elections is very strong for LAB but both of them have been in seats that were already held and where the Tories were a long way behind. A better test would be in a CON held seat where the majority was under about 10k. Here the evidence from this…
LAB holds Stretford by-election on 25.8%turnout
It is hard to read anything into this that we didn’t know beforehand. The Tories are struggling and Labour is benefitting but the turnout was far less than we see in normal council elections. The 10.4% CON to LAB swing was broadly in line with recent national polls but markedly smaller than in Chester two weeks ago. None of the parties put any real effort into this because the outcome was a foregone conclusion. The 25.8% turnout compares with the…
How will Stretford & Urmston compare with Chester?
One thing that we know about the by-election tonight in the seat of Urmston and Stretford is that there will be a low turnout and that LAB will win. The vacancy has occurred because the former MP has become Deputy Mayor of Greater Manchester My guess is that the turnout will be somewhat lower than we saw a fortnight ago and we might see the Reform party doing somewhat better. This will be the second of three elections in North…
Dominic Raab’s terrible YouGov favourability ratings
Even CON voters have him in negative territory Of all the leader ratings formats the one I like the most is on favourability and like to think that PB played a part in YouGov’s development of this tracker series. The latest numbers are above and can be seen Starmer comes out best but he’s still in negative territory, slipping back from a net minus 6% to minus 10% . But he’s still getting better numbers than any of the Tories….
Trump’s ratings slump to a 7 year low
As ex-President Donald Trump seeks to return to the Oval Office, 31% of registered voters have a favourable opinion of him, while 59 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him – the lowest favorability rating he’s received among registered voters since July 2015, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll just released. Among Republican voters, 70% have a favourable opinion of Trump, while 20% an unfavorable one. This is the lowest favorability rating among Republican voters in a Quinnipiac University…
Remember how Truss’s Tories were doing before the Kwartang Budget?
The incredible thing is that this poll came out less than three months ago and an enormous amount has happened in the intervening period. The same poll had Truss and Starmer level pegging on the “Best PM” question. One of my 2022 bets that did not work out was on the Tories getting a poll lead in September. My reasoning was that the new leader would get something of a honeymoon and that would be reflected in the voting intention…
Why I’m not convinced that LAB will get a majority
GE2019 CON “don’t knows” are likely to return to the fold As can be seen in the betting chart above Labour is now rated as a 50% chance on the betting markets of winning an overall majority at the next election. I think this puts too much of a gloss on the Labour position because punters are overstating it’s chances and understating the Tory strength. It is the GE2019 Tory voters now saying don’t know that are the issue. The…