Why I’m not convinced that LAB will get a majority
GE2019 CON “don’t knows” are likely to return to the fold
As can be seen in the betting chart above Labour is now rated as a 50% chance on the betting markets of winning an overall majority at the next election.
I think this puts too much of a gloss on the Labour position because punters are overstating it’s chances and understating the Tory strength. It is the GE2019 Tory voters now saying don’t know that are the issue.
The polling detail in the tables where don’t knows are not netted our show that a significant proportion of Conservative voters at the last election are in this category. They haven’t switched to another party and in fact only about 10-12% are now saying LAB. My assumption is that a significant proportion will remain in the Tory camp
It is this group that can cause polling upsets like the one we saw at the 2015 general election when EdM’s chances were overstated.
This is why I believe the headline voting numbers in the polls can be distorting.