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This piece originally started off as a 2023 predictions thread but then I realised the 2024 presidential election and the next UK general election featured heavily then it dawned on me that is very likely that both these elections may happen within weeks if not days of each other which represents some challenges for punters. Only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would hold a UK general election in January (2025), it would be an election…

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I’ve been posting for a while, as has Mike Smithson, about why we have our doubts about Labour winning a majority at the next election. One of them is Brexit, another is headline voting intentions generally strip out don’t knows, and if they do vote at the next election then as the above poll shows it could prevent a Labour majority. Considering where we were just over 18 months ago and Labour had just lost Hartlepool then and now Labour…

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The last year has seen 6 parliamentary by-elections of which just two saw a change in the party holding the seat. The first at Southend West wasn’t contested by the main parties and was filling the vacancy created by the murder of Sir David Amess. Three – Birmingham Erdington, Chester and Stretford & Urmston – saw LAB defending solid majorities and there was very little betting. The other two were on the same night in June when LAB took Wakefield…

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The split based on party supported

The memory of GE1992 is still strong Last night we had the worst poll for the Tories in decades and yet the betting markets have not reacted as can be seen in the chart showing movements in the general election overall majority betting market. I must say that I expected to wake up this morning to see the betting numbers change a fair bit following the poll that has the Tories on just 19%. Sure the pollster involved is very…

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Brexit “Wrong” edges up 2% to a 19% lead

As backing for Brexit declines so will his party Sunak has got better personal ratings than his two predecessors Johnson and Truss but the voting polls remain very poor and unless there is some improvement then the Tories will be out at the next general election. The party is not helped by the fact that their target to stay at Number 10 in terms of seats is considerably higher than for Labour. If Starmer doesn’t make the 326 seats required…

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