Starmer remains solid 71% favourite to be PM after the election
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The betting money goes on Biden to be re-elected
We have not shown this chart for a few weeks but it represents what is going on and what will be the biggest market of all in the next couple of years. The big mover upwards is 80 year old Biden while Florida governor DeSantis is on the decline. Trump on a 13% chance is not rated as strongly as he was. Biden has already put a campaign structure in place for the 2024 election and provided there is no…
Sunak’s response to the private GP question made things worse
It was on Sunday that this interview first went out and yet the issue that it raises is still causing problems for Number 10. I wouldn’t be surprised if Starmer chooses to bring it up at PMQs. Clearly there is a lot of sensitivity to the fact that the PM compared with the vast bulk of voters is fabulously rich. By refusing to answer Sunak is effectively saying yes he does have a private GP. This matters because in the…
BoJo’s resignation – “Right or Wrong”: GE2019 Tories think the latter
Interesting set of poll results from R&W which no doubt will give a boost to those in the Tory Party who would like Boris Johnson back. What can be seen from the Tweet there has been very little difference on this since October when the first polling took place shortly after Johnson felt he had to quit. The former PM has a lot of support amongst his party base and that is not changing. His problem is the wider electorate….
At what point could Sunak be in serious trouble?
MPs are back at Westminster today and no doubt a big topic of conversation will be the latest polling which shows very little difference compared with what it was before the holidays. The Tories are still in dire territory and if this was repeated at a general election then hundreds of CON MPs would lose their jobs. If the hope was that by electing Sunak they were backing an election winner then those hopes have been totally dashed. I think…
Can Rishi possibly turn it round?
Stopping a LAB majority would be a victory So far the polls in 2023 have shown little difference from those of last year and all are still pointing to a substantial LAB victory at the next general election whenever it happens. From Sunak’s perspective, any outcome other than a LAB majority can be seen as a victory and I for one think that this is achievable. The seat calculators suggest that for LAB to have an overall majority it will…
Something does not add up
The great Scottish comedian Hector Nicol used to tell a joke about a signalman in the Highlands who applied for a promotion and had to sit a test. This consisted of ever more outlandish scenarios about what he would do if two trains were running towards each other on the same line of track while a series of disasters befell his signalling equipment. The punchline of the joke, after his signal box had caught fire, the points had been jammed…
The numbers do add up for Sunak
Given the general unpopularity of the government, the more pressing issues facing the country, and the general derision from the commentariat I’m slightly surprised by these poll findings even though I’m in favour of children studying more mathematics. What the pandemic showed was that so many people in the country, including far too many people in the country, the media and political class were so (statistically) innumerate, more maths lessons would help so many as well as the country. The…