Such is the inevitability of Raab’s departure that as far as I can see no bookie has a next cabinet minister to leave market. It has also been six days since Sunak fired Nadhim Zahawi and in those six days Sunak hasn’t appointed a new party chairman, probably due to the fact Raab’s shameful behaviour will trigger a resignation so it will be better to do a wider reshuffle. Stories like this damage the Tory party as it brings back…
It’s not RIshi Sunak’s fault that he’s richer than Scrooge McDuck but comments like the one from Piers Morgan aren’t unexpected. The politics of envy seldom work, as evidenced with the attacks on David Cameron’s poshness being ineffectual but Sunak needs to come up with a better response to questions similar to the one from Morgan. I’ve had relationships that have lasted shorter than the silence in the clip above. If Sunak wants to have a successful general election campaign…
Yesterday saw Rishi Sunak’s one hundredth day in office and YouGov released some polling on his first one hundred days and it makes pretty grim reading for Sunak and the Tories. The nicest thing people might end up saying about Rishi Sunak is that he’s not as rubbish as Boris Johnson or Liz Truss which is a bar so low that it is actually touching the ground. The one that probably is the most damaging is that the Tory brand…
This is a betting market that I’ve not looked at before and it is very difficult to argue that the current odds are wrong. There is little doubt that Johnson, given half a chance, would love to be back at Number 10. The question is whether or not he is going to be given that chance. At the moment that seems unlikely. Sunak is getting more established at Number 10 having just completed his first 100 days. A worry for…
This week Sunak completed his first 100 days in Downing Street and looks pretty solid to continue there until the general election. While the latest batch of polls has three surveys with the deficit in teens the overall picture is still fairly daunting for Tory strategists. To maintain a majority the party probably needs a lead of 5% over LAB and that seems a very remote possibility. The fact is that in spite of two leader changes the polls are…
Not enough of the GE2019 CON vote is going LAB The above chart is based on data from tonight’s YouGov poll for the Times and seeks to show how the 2019 Tory vote is currently viewing the next election. The big worry I would have if I was Starmer is that the party is not picking up enough of the Tory vote from last time. Getting just 12% of them points to a real struggle next time when one would…
Looking at the detail from the world cloud then the views of leave voters seem to have changed more than the reviews of remain voters. That fits with other polling which is now suggesting that it will be about 58 to 42 Remain if there was another referendum. But there isn’t going to be another vote and the most interesting feature head is how will the presumed incoming Starmer government deal with Europe? My guess is that it will be…
Does the “Liar sleep tonight” One of the big stories in US politics at the moment has been on George Santos who last November gained the Long Island seat in the US House of Representatives for the Republicans. The reason this is so big is that many of the things that he has said about himself have proved to be total fabrications. These include lies about his mother being in the twin towers on 9/11 and him being Jewish. What…