politicalbetting.com

One thing that we have learnt from political history is that if the government wants to take on a group of strikers then it must have the support of the public. That is not happening with the current wave with the public generally supporting those who want pay increases in line with inflation rather than what is being offered. The crunch starts next week when teachers and nurses are joining the action which is right across the public sector. Sky…

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Mike Smithson

The Standard is reporting: Rishi Sunak’s popularity is sinking as the Government continues to be hit by controversies in the middle of the cost-of-living crisis and wave of strikes, a new poll revealed on Monday. The Ipsos survey for the Standard found that 32 per cent of adults believe he has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister, down ten points from November, with 43 per cent disagreeing, up nine points.He has fallen behind Sir Keir Starmer, on 36 per cent for having PM qualities, and…

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The Tweet from ex-PBer Alastair Meeks last night certainly chimed with me because it has become a betting nonsense that Andy Burnham remains the favourite to succeed Starmer. Burnham, it might be remembered, has failed twice before to become leader and is the mayor of Greater Manchester. The only way he could be nominated for the Labour leadership is if he is an MPs which he isn’t. Those betting on him for the leader completely ignore the huge transformation that…

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I think Number 10 will be happy

Introduction The Intermarium is an area between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas. It is not a country in the same way that Scandinavia, North America, Europe and Iberia aren’t. It contains many peoples with common concerns by virtue of its geography. Over time those peoples formed tribes, nations, alliances, commonwealths, pacts and finally sovereign states, but you can still see the ghosts in modern borders. It has been patronised as Eastern Europe, fit only for plumbers, but it has…

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It bodes ill for Sunak that Tory MPs are alreadfy discussing his successor. Today’s Sunday Times are reporting that Many [Tory] MPs expect to lose [the next general election], and people already wonder who they would support in the next leadership contest. Kemi Badenoch, the trade secretary, is the early favourite but allies say Jacob Rees-Mogg held a dinner before Christmas on the future of the right and is seriously contemplating running. The rump of Trussites are aligning behind Simon…

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Although it is more than 20 months away one of the biggest betting markets at the moment is on who will be the nominees for the 2024 White House race. It will be recalled that in November at the time of the Midterms Trump sought to take the attention of what was going on elsewhere by announcing that he would be standing again. Clearly he has a significant supporter base but is that base large enough to first win his…

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