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I have been trying to envisage the electoral outcome under which Starmer doesn’t become PM. Let’s assume for a moment that there is a big recovery for the Tories and they come out of the general election as top party but below the threshold required for them to have a majority. By my reckoning if the Tory losses are more than 47 seats Starmer could become Prime Minister of a minority government even if his party came second on seats…

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One of the things we have not focused on that much is how vulnerable the Tories could be in seats mainly in the home counties that voted Remain and where the Lib Dems can establish themselves as the main challenger. The Survation poll above looks very worrying for former minister John Redwood and Sunak’s party. As well as trying to defend seats in the Red wall that were taken from Labour last time there are perhaps two to three dozen…

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If he runs it will be a vanity trip There have been number of polls like this on whether Joe Biden should go for a second term and in almost all cases the outcome has been the same – voters don’t want him to run. Yet the 80 year old seems absolutely committed to putting his hat into the ring. If he ignores the polling and finds himself the losing nominee he’ll get the blame for generations for allowing the…

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According to the Observer, the LDs are planning to use the above poster in a digital ad blitz key areas in the south where elections are taking place on May 4th. Lee Anderson, of course, is deputy chairman of the Tory party and has a habit of making controversial statements like those that appear. When you put all of these together as in the ad it does appear that Anderson has views that might mean his party could struggle in…

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This is the Sunday Times report on the CON MP this morning: A disgraced MP used a forged document while applying for a bank loan, used a frontman to conceal his business interests and failed to declare a billionaire’s £25,000 donation in an apparent breach of election laws. David Warburton is suspended from the Conservative Party after allegations of drug-taking and sexual misconduct..He had the whip removed last year after The Sunday Times published an image of him next to…

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We have not discussed Trump for some time but he continues to be doing well in WH2024 nomination polling as well as the betting. I’m less convinced. I wonder whether he polls well because as an ex-President he has far higher name recognition but there are a lot of negatives. Although he’s getting old, 77 next birthday, he’s still younger than Biden who increasingly looks as though he intends to go for a second term. But there are a lot…

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A combination of the ongoing 20%+ LAB poll leads combined with what is happening in parliamentary and local government by-elections have continued to reinforce the betting market view about what will happen at the general election. The current 62% chance for an overall majority that Labour is rated is at is the highest it’s ever been and it looks as though it could go up further. All the talk now is of how difficult the Tories are going to find…

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I must say I cannot get at all excited about Labour by-election defences in northern seats which have been held by the party for as long as anyone can remember. There is almost never any interesting betting and it is hard to draw too many conclusions about the result outcomes except that the Tories are in as bad a position as we knew they were Unfortunately, the last few by-elections have all fitted into this category and have barely been…

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