The 2021 census data reported that for the first time the catholic population was the largest religious group in Northern Ireland. Unsurprisingly Sinn Fein immediately began the push for a border poll. There was lots of noise and then towards the end of 2021 it all went quiet. Perhaps one of the reasons for the silence was a series of polls conducted by the Irish Times sampling views on the centenary of partition. The Irish Times polled voters both north…
Generally speaking we can partly explain poll shifts as being within the margin of error but not so with tonight’s R&W survey which came out this afternoon. As can be seen the Labour lead is up 6% on last week’s poll from the firm. Quite what has been driving this is hard to explain but these are the worst numbers from this pollster since Sunak became leader last October. This does not bode well for the Tories in the May…
This was her Tweet and video announcing her move. Mike Smithson
Did Nicola know the SNP position was built on sand? If ever there was an argument against the first past the post voting system then the outcome in Scotland at the last election makes a great case. The chart shows the proportion of the Scottish vote that each of the parties who won MPs had and compares it with the percentage of Scottish MPs that the party achieved. LAB’s 18.6% Scottish vote produced just 1.7% of the seats. The SNP…
Electorally, I cannot think of anything more ghastly than being compelled to vote, any politician or party that proposes compulsory voting will not receive my vote. If such a policy did become law the primary consequence would be an increase in the number of ballot papers with phallus shaped drawings on them. TSE
I’ve been clear for a while that I’m not convinced a Labour majority is likely at the next election, simply because of the toxic legacy Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed Sir Keir Starmer and the electoral geography being poorer for Labour at the next election than in 1997. The other nagging doubt is about Sir Keir Starmer, longstanding readers of PB know that leader ratings that Ipsos produce are often a better predictors of general election outcomes than voting intention polls. Starmer…
It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves how badly the Tory party was performing when Truss was prime minister. The Wikipedia chart above shows the national opinion polls for her final few weeks when there were more LAB leads in the 30s than in the 20s. Four months into Sunak’s leadership we don’t see gaps in the 30s anymore. Generally, LAB leads are now in the low 20s with the odd poll going into the teens. Whilst the current polling position…
Could he face Biden once again? Although the October 2024 election is more than 20 months away a lot is going on on as potential protagonists seek to establish their position. Joe Biden is said to want to carry on even though he would be in his late 80s if he was to serve a full second term. The latest reports are that he is trying to hire someone to manage his 2024 campaign but has struggled to find someone….