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Is Blair thinking of an October General Election?

9/4/2004 Editor

A fascinating piece by Michael Brown in today’s Independent on whether Blair might be considering going to the country in October this year. He argues that if Iraq continues to go badly and leads to John Kerry beating George W. Bush then this could have serious consequences for Tony Blair… “This scenario lies behind the growing speculation that Mr Blair might conceivably be planning a quick, cut-and-run election before the presidential contest, in order to pre-empt any embarrassing read across…

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Dare you bet against the opinion polls?

7/4/2004 Editor

One of the most dangerous, risky but potentially most profitable political gambles is to bet against the opinion polls. I’ve done that twice this year – first by laying Howard Dean for the Democratic Nomination and second by betting against Ken Livingston being re-elected as Mayor of London. The Howard Dean call, made publicly on the Betfair Forum, was when Dean was 20% ahead and I got an average price of 1.7. At that stage I felt I could dismiss…

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British punters are ignoring the Iraq impact on Bush

6/4/2004 Editor

A spate of US opinion polls showing the Bush campaign to be under pressure, particularly on Iraq and its aftermath, is being ignored by British punters. Today’s claim by Edward Kennedy that “Iraq is Bush’s Vietnam” is resonating throughout the US media. In most recent surveys Kerry has crept up one or two points on Bush even taking into account the wrecking effect of the Ralph Nader candidature. It’s clear that Bush has been undermined by the recent revelations about…

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It’s getting tighter for Labour

5/4/2004 Editor

The former Cambridge and now City mathematician, Martin Baxter, has cut his forecast of the Labour majority at the next General Election from 42 to just 30 seats. His April prediction is based on the March opinion polls and produces the tightest margin since Tony Blair came to power in 1997. CON 229 seats from 36.63% of the vote LAB 338 seats from 35.10% of the vote LDs 48 seats from 21.09% of the vote. Baxter has factored in the…

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Can you profit from the bookmakers’ Scottish confusion?

4/4/2004 Editor

The bookies seem to have got their sums wrong over their General Election Seats Won Markets by ignoring the seat changes in Scotland. At the next election the number of Westminster seats is being reduced from 659 to 646 following a Boundary Commission review to bring the size of Scottish constituencies into line with those in the rest of the country. This is a long overdue reform that could have a big impact on the final result. With 55 of…

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Could Michael Howard win England?

4/4/2004 Editor

To liven up betting on the General Election there should be market on which party will get most seats in England. This could be an easier target for the Tories because the way that Westminster seats are distributed means that they need to have a votes margin of at least six full percentage points to become the next Government – Labour is there even if it is three points behind. Michael Howard has shown himself to be ruthless and already…

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All postal voting – putting political expediency ahead of honest elections.

4/4/2004 Editor

It now looks as though there will be more fully postal ballots than ever before in the Euro Elections on June 10. A Lib Dem move to restrain the Government was thwarted last week and the whole North-West region will vote on this basis. As someone who has spent a lot of time “pounding the streets” as an activist I share all the concerns about security and fraud. Imagine a large house converted into bed-sitters with one letter box. What…

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Tory Backers should beware the Donut

2/4/2004 Editor

Any punter thinking of backing any party but Labour at the next UK General Election should be aware of the “power of the Donut” – the term that was used by Labour stategists the last time the boundaries for Westminster seats were re-drawn ten years ago. A real possibility, based on current polls, is that that Labour could hold onto power at the next election even though it is three or four full percentage points behind the Tories. The winner…

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