It’s getting tighter for Labour

It’s getting tighter for Labour


The former Cambridge and now City mathematician, Martin Baxter, has cut his forecast of the Labour majority at the next General Election from 42 to just 30 seats. His April prediction is based on the March opinion polls and produces the tightest margin since Tony Blair came to power in 1997.

CON 229 seats from 36.63% of the vote
LAB 338 seats from 35.10% of the vote
LDs 48 seats from 21.09% of the vote.

Baxter has factored in the planned boundary changes in Scotland that will reduce by 13 the number Scottish to deal with the anomaly of them being smaller. The new House of Commons will have 646 MPs.

Even after dealing with this the distribution of Westminster seats is still very much biased to Labour. The biggest sufferers are the LDs as Baxter explains:-

    “If, by chance, all three parties received equal percentage support then Labour would still have a majority. It would get 341 seats (with a majority of 36), the Conservatives would have 197 seats, and the Liberals just 77”

For Labour to maintain a Commons majority on 1.5% less votes than the Tories and with barely a third of the overall vote will create a completely new political situation. The pressure for change in the system will be enormous.

The bookmakers still make Labour to be the hot favourite. The spread market is unchanged.

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