bbc Labour can no longer be considered a certainty We are changing our long-standing call that Labour will win most seats at the General Election because the odds are now tighter than the risk of them not doing it. All bets are about judging risk against the return and recent events have moved far enough for us to recommend a more cautious approach to backing Labour. The current best Labour price is 2/7. Any Labour bet less than 1/2 is…
Labour down 7% over the past year Today’s Populus Poll in the Times makes good reading for Simon Hughes (above) who was elected as President of the Liberal Democrats last week. The details are:- CON 30% (-2), LAB 32% (No change), LD 26%(+2), OTH 12% An indication of the challenge facing Labour is that its share is down 7% on a year ago which in itself was affected by the suicide a few weeks earlier of the scientist David Kelly….
By-election a test-bed for Labour’s new anti-LD approach A conventional bookmaker, Paddy Power, has now joined the betting exchange, Betfair and opened a market on the Hartlepool by-election to find a replacement for Peter Mandelson.The prices are:- LAB 4/7: LD 5/4: CON 8/1: UKIP 14/1 The Tory price seems a bit mean given you can get 29/1 on Betfair. UKIP are so out of this race following their decision not to have a high-profile candidate that the 14/1 is ridiculously…
New poll shows a Hung Parliament now a probality not a possility A Populus poll, just out, shows that Labour has lost the support of LD voters who at the last ’97 and ’01 General Elections were prepared to switch parties to help get Tories out. It shows that the scale of the ‘tactical vote unwind’ is at a level far bigger than anybody envisaged and means that Labour stands to lose far more seats than a calculation based on…
Looking at the British political scene from a sunny French beach it’s clear that’s what’s changed in the past 2 years is that Blair’s adventure with George Bush has cost him the support of the chattering classes. It was these groups’ abandonment of John Major and their enthusiastic embracing of New Labour that set the scene for the ’97 landslide. The media honeymoon that continued until last year was driven by the widespread view amongst the chattering classes that Blair…
It’s not been picked up by the pundits or the betting markets but ALL four of the main opinion polls have shown Tory gains in August. YouGov (Aug 27) 34%(+1) L34%(nc!) LD21% (-2%) ICM (Aug15) C33%(+3) L36%(+1) LD22%(-3) MORI (Aug 16) C32%(+1) L36%(+4) LD21%(-3) Populus (Aug 1) C32%(+3) L32%(-1) LD24% (nc) With the UKIP effect continuing to unwind there is the potenial for further improvements but all this is being ignored by the betting markets. Latest spread-betting prices. LAB 343-351…
The betting exchange, Betfair, have now opened a market on the Hartlepool by-election. So far there are very few backers and layers but Labour is just favourite over the LDs. Labour are 1/2 while the LD current price is 2/3. This could change quickly. If I was sitting in front of my computer rather than composing this on my smartphone sitting on a French beach I would be trying to lay Labour at 1/2. There are only 2 parties in…
Today’s YouGov poll has CON 34%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LD 21%(-2), Oth 11%(nc). UKIP is at 6% compared with 4% with MORI and 1% with ICM. They cannot all be right but a sixfold difference must be a record. .