Did this man’s tummy bug change the course of British Politics?

Did this man’s tummy bug change the course of British Politics?

For sometime now we’ve been meaning to draw users attention to the extraordinary internet book by the polling blogger, operator of UK Pollingreport and regular contributor to Politicalbetting, Anthony Wells. It’s called “What if Gordon Banks had played” and is a fun-packed counterfactual political history of the 1970s based on the premise that Banks played in the quarter-final of the 1970 World Cup three days before the General Election that ended Harold Wilson’s Government and saw Edward Heath’s Tories win…

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Who’ll get the Volvo Vote?

Who’ll get the Volvo Vote?

Try this little test. Click on this link to go Upmystreet.com. Type in the postcode of a UK residential address that you want to check. Then click on the link marked ACORN PROFILE and go to “full profile” . You will then see an interesting description of how the marketing business assesses people who live there, how much they earn, what TV they watch, the things they buy and what papers they read etc. Now ask yourself whether the profile…

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Markets edge further to Labour

Markets edge further to Labour

After three polls showing big Labour leads the betting markets have now caught up a little with the number of predicted Labour seats at the election increasing and the Tory numbers declining. At IG the spreads are LAB 345-353: CON 194-202: LD 70-74. Sportingindex, meanwhile have LAB 344-352: CON 202-210: LD 70-74.. These are big differences between the two firms with IG attracting more Labour money and SI, seemingly, getting more pro-Tory bets. What could affect the prices is the…

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How good a pointer are local by-election results?

How good a pointer are local by-election results?

Be wary of the party spinners As we get nearer the General Election pundits and punters will be looking beyond the opinion polls to find pointers as to what is going on. One source that’s readily available are the results from the handful of local council by-elections that take place up and down the country almost every Thursday. For many years the results were aggregated and issued monthly as a sort of poll. These are real electors putting real votes…

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Why don’t punters believe the pollsters?

Why don’t punters believe the pollsters?

Are gamblers ignoring massive betting value? The spate of polls showing Labour shares in the late 30s with leads of upto 9% has, as expected, led to prices moving on the spread betting markets where punters gamble on how many seats each party will get at the General Election. SportingIndex have now shaved more off the Tories and increased Labour:- LAB 344-352 (+2): CON 202-210 (-2): LD 70-74 (n/c). Yet the prices are not back to the levels of late…

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The Politicalbetting Top Ten – November 21 2004

The Politicalbetting Top Ten – November 21 2004

Hilary moves to Number One top political bet With two new polls showing Labour leads of 8-9% the party has tightened even further to 1/7 for the General Election and punters have been looking elsewhere for betting value. Even though the next White House race is four years away it has moved to the top of the charts as the week’s most popular political bet. In a fairly light betting week punters have been looking for bets that give them…

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Another way of looking at the ICM poll

Another way of looking at the ICM poll

The statistics they never tell you As we predicted yesterday’s ICM poll in the Guardian pushed up Labour prices and depressed Tory ones on the spread, seat and overall winner markets. The latest IG spreads are:- LAB 342-350 (+2): CON 198-206 (-2): LD 69-73 (+1). SportingIndex is LAB 342-350: CON 205-213: LD 70-74 – the discrepancy based on the fact that they are using the old larget House of Commons – not the new reduced sized one. The best boomaker…

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Explaining Arbitrage – the sure way to profit

Explaining Arbitrage – the sure way to profit

The morning that Gordon Brown became favourite On the weekend on May 15 this year a rumour swept through the Westminster village about a family problem for Tony and Cherie Blair that people concluded would lead to him wanting to step down as Prime Minister. The media showed great restraint and the story was never covered. But punters “in the know” saw an opportunity for profit and by 10am on the Sunday morning heavy betting on Gordon Brown on Betfair…

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