Hilary moves to Number One top political bet
With two new polls showing Labour leads of 8-9% the party has tightened even further to 1/7 for the General Election and punters have been looking elsewhere for betting value. Even though the next White House race is four years away it has moved to the top of the charts as the week’s most popular political bet.
In a fairly light betting week punters have been looking for bets that give them a reasonable return and there’s a lot of interest in the General Election seat markets for the three main parties.
The chart is compiled by listing in order the number of “click-throughs” to online book-makers from Politicalbetting.com. We do not know what people are betting on – just the markets they are interested in.
THIS WEEK’s TOP TEN
1. US President 2008 Hilary Clinton is still 5/1 favourite which looks good value given that you can only get 5/4 on her getting the Democratic nomination. If you are going to bet on the New York Senator then why not back her all the way? (Up from 3 last week)
2. Tory Seats at the General Election. The declining Tory fortunes in the polls has led to this market coming into the Top 10 as a NEWCOMER this week. We don’t know whether punters are backing the favourite, 220 seats or less at 10/11, or if they see value at slightly higher numbers.
3. Labour seats at the General Election. The range 360+ at 5/4 is still the favourite although it’s moved out from 6/5 in spite of the improved poll ratings. (UP from 7)
4. Winning Party at General Election. Was number 1 market last week and maybe the tightening of the best bookie price on Labour to 1/7 and 0.19/1 with a betting exchange has made it less attactive.(DOWN from number 1)
5. Winning party and leader for the General Election. If you find the 1/7 on the main market a bit steep then try the 1/4 on Labour and Blair on the Betdaq market. It’s hard to see any leadership change now. (NEWCOMER)
6. Liberal Democrat seats at General Election. 61+ remains 1/3 favourite. (UP from 8 last week)
7. General Election date Hot favourite getting tighter at 2/11 is April-June 2005. (DOWN from 4 last week)
8. Next Pope? Dionigi Tettamanzi of Italy is still 2/1 favourite. (UP from 9 last week)
9. Democratic Candidate 2008 . Hilary Clinton is 5/4 favourite. (DOWN from 5 last week)
10. 2012 Olympic City. Newcomer reflecting the interest following the bid submission. Paris tightens to 4/9 with London on 4/1. Before you bet check out Tradesports for the international prices.
Martin Baxter Changes Martin has now changed the URL for his site to http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/. This is where you should go now to access his General Election seat calculator. We’ve changed the link on this page.