Is it all over bar the shouting? On the assumption that Tony Blair has decided to go to the country on Thursday May 5th then this Tuesday there’ll just be 100 days to go before polling day. If you believe the conventional telephone pollsters have got it right and think that the Commons seats will be distributed on the basis of the Martin Baxter uniform national swing then there is absolutely no question about the result. Labour to win with…
Why does Kellner’s firm have the lowest Labour figures? With today’s YouGov poll likely to take the edge off Labour on the spreadbetting markets we ought to look at how the internet pollster operates. For since starting political surveys at the last General Election YouGov, headed by the well-known politcal writer Peter Kellner (above), has consistently produced figures that set it apart from the rest of the pollsters who rely on traditional interviews . Today’s 34% for Labour is 4-6%…
Just nine points now separate the three main parties A YouGov poll to be published in the Sunday Times tomorrow sees both Labour and the Tories going down and the Lib Dems moving up to 25%. The figures showing the changes since the last YouGov poll before Christmas are: LAB 34(-1): CON 31(-1): LD 25(+2) Labour’s 34% is the lowest share from the internet pollster since August The Tories’ 31% is the second lowest share with YouGov for more than…
Can the campaign magic of last time repeat itself? Whatever your allegiance you have to concede that the Labour campaign in 2001 was totally brilliant. Although it’s margin over the Tories was nearly a quarter down on 1997, this did not translate into many seats changing hands because Tony Blair’s party piled on the votes in the only seats that mattered – the marginals it was defending. This is shown by the way it performed in each category of seat…
You can bet against -but, for now, not for For some time we’ve been urging the bookmakers, particularly the ones we have a partnership with, to open up new betting markets and create means of having a punt on issues like whether George Galloway will get back into Parliament. One of them, the spread firm IG Index, has now broadened its General Election market to include Galloway’s Respect party as well as the Scottish and Welsh national parties. The latest…
The money piles on Labour The spread-betting prices on the number of seats the parties will win at the General Election has moved even further away from the Tories as punters assimilate the recent bad polls and the effect of the Robert Jackson defection. In new market shifts tonight the latest spreads from IG Index have LAB 359 – 366 (+5): CON 184 – 191 (-5): LD 70 – 74 (+1). In just seven weeks the Labour buy price has…
Choose from Blair,Brown, Howard or Kennedy I’m on the YouGov panel and I’ve just been polled – I guess for one of the Sunday papers. One interesting question was – if your car broke down who would you like to help you – Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Michael Howard or Charles Kennedy? Maybe it’s me but I could not imagine any of the four being able to offer any practical help. Michael Howard would not want to get his hands…
Kilroy-Sillk to annouce his intentions tonight With Robert Kilroy-Silk set to announce tonight whether he is leaving UKIP the opportunity to make a profit on the party doing badly has receded after its price has been marked down sharply on the spread-betting markets. On Christmas Eve we suggested that a sell bet on the party at the then price of just one seat with one firm looked like a good profit opportunity because the only possiblity they had was Robert…