How the punters beat the pollsters

How the punters beat the pollsters

Are betting markets a good guide to changing opinion? A remarkable aspect of today’s YouGov move to the Tories was that the change was forecast more than forty-hours beforehand on the betting markets even while the survey for the Daily Telegraph was still taking place. On Tuesday Michael Howard’s party was at it’s lowest point for years on the spread-betting markets with the range being predicted by those ready to back up their opinions with cash at 183-190 seats. The…

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Tories up 3% in a week

Tories up 3% in a week

UKIP’s decline and immigration give Howard a boost Punters who have been backing the Tories on the spread-betting markets in the past few days have been vindicated by the latest YouGov poll in the Telegraph has the party 3% up on last Sunday. The figures are: LAB 35% (+1): CON 34 (+3): LD 22 (-3): OTH 9 (-1) Interestingly the change has come from the Lib Dems and not Labour which has gone up. It might be that part of…

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Tory spread recovery continues

Tory spread recovery continues

For the second day running the spread-betting price on the number of MPs that punters think the party will get at the coming election has moved upwards. After yesterday’s two seat rise IG Index have added a further seat at the expense of Labour. Today’s spreads are:- LAB 356-363 (-1): CON 186-193 (+1): LDs 71-75. We do not know whether this is as a result of more money going on or just a precautionary step by the firm in advance…

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Is May 5th a certainty?

Is May 5th a certainty?

Is this snap election talk just that – talk? With the betting exchange, Betfair, opening a new market on whether or not the General Election will be on the widely forcast date of May 5 there’s renewed specualation this morning that a snap election might be in the offiing. This has been fuelled by Alastair Campbell making a quiet return to full-time return to politics. According to a report in the Scotsman Mr Campbell’s daily attendance at Labour’s new campaign…

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Has the Tory price bottomed out?

Has the Tory price bottomed out?

Howard’s immigration plans please the punters After weeks of steady decline on the spread markets the Tory price has staged a small recovery as punters seek to get in at what they see as bargain prices. IG Index this evening marked Michael Howard’s party up two seats as punters took stock of the policy line-up on immigration and Labour’s two point drop in the Guardian ICM poll. There’s also a realisation that a Labour buy bet on 364 seat –…

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What do we think of Andy Cooke’s analysis?

What do we think of Andy Cooke’s analysis?

Will polling inaccuaracy and tactical voting cause an upset? One of our regular contributors, Andy Cooke, produced the following well-worked out analysis of the coming election and posted it in our comments section. We think it should be given greater prominence. The volatility of this upcoming election is largely down to two major factors: Opinion Poll accuracy (or lack) – will they be closer than in 01? Tactical Voting – will it unwind, and if so, how far? On the…

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Is Crosby’s “Tories can’t win” line part of the plan?

Is Crosby’s “Tories can’t win” line part of the plan?

What’s the “master of the dark political arts” up to? Why are the pundits and politicians taking at face value the stories that the Tories’ Australian campaign guru, Lytton Crosby (above) has allegedly told Michael Howard that the Tories cannot win? Given that the 48-year-old who was brought to the UK by the Tory leader last autumn has been described as a “master of the dark political arts” and “the Australian Karl Rove,” surely the wise course is to treat…

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Which polling methodology are you putting your money on?

Which polling methodology are you putting your money on?

Are you more likely to be Labour in public than in private Today’s ICM poll in the Guardian shows no movement on the pollster’s survey for the News of the World earlier in the month but has Labour 2% down on the last Guardian poll in December. The figures are LAB 38: CON 31: LD 21 With just 100 days to go before a May 5th General Election, there’s a remarkable degree of unanimity amongst the pollsters. The telephone-based surveys…

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