The Trump case – latest YouGov US polling
The New York court hearing open thread
In the betting Trump now a 29% chance to win WH2024 The first thing I hope we will get is the detail of each of the charges against the former President. At the moment we don’t know. Mike Smithson
Corbyn remains an electoral liability for LAB
The Tories know this very well which is why they always seek to attack Starmer by highlighting his role as part of Corbyn’s cabinet. The current leader’s action against his predecessor would seem to be absolutely right electorally. Corbyn was a total disaster for the party at GE2019 and the more Starmer can go on with these measures the harder it is for the Tories to attack. Corbyn’s leadership of the party was the main thrust of Johnson’s 2019 General…
What will tomorrow do to Trump’s WH2024 hopes?
Tomorrow is a massive day in US politics when the former president goes on criminal trial in New York for actions in the WH2016 when it is alleged he paid Stormy Daniel to keep quiet about their relationship. He is the first former American president ever to go on criminal trial and undoubtedly what happens will divide the nation. That he could have been indicted is extraordinary and no doubt every effort will be made to ensure there won’t be…
GE2019 CON voters much more likely to switch to LAB than vice versa
I really like this polling question which I have seen before but not for a long time. The format gives us a sense of the direction of travel and potential for tactical voting As can be seen the Tory vote from the last election is more likely to dissipate to other parties, particularly Labour, compared with when this question was asked of supporters of Starmer’s party. One of the the challenges for LAB at the moment is that they have…
Labour’s useless strategy?
Earlier on this week The Times reported that Labour will target Humza Yousaf’s Glasgow Pollok seat with a message that he lives 80 miles from the constituency, in an attempt to undermine his election campaigning. Pollok is among the areas where Labour is delivering direct mail shots to try to capture voters who have previously backed the SNP as part of a campaign to exploit the divisive leadership election. Yousaf’s home is in Dundee and he must now spend much more time…
Storm(y) in a D cup for Donald Trump
When it became apparent that Donald Trump was going to be indicted I predicted that this would simultaneously solidify Trump’s hold on the GOP nomination whilst weaken Trump’s chances of winning the Presidency next year. The first part of that prediction is coming true based on this YouGov poll. I had a hunch that GOP voters would see this as the greatest sham trial since Jesus was taken before Sanhedrin then Pontius Pilate which would boost Trump. I suspect the…