As a callow and innocent teenager I will alway remember April the 9th 1992 with a lot of fondness for it was the first general election I followed with a keen interest and actually stayed up all night to see the results come in. As a normal thirteen year old at the time I was very interested in politics, the (in)famous Sheffield rally took place in my home city, so you couldn’t avoid politics during the campaign if you lived…
Could Sunak’s net ratings soon outperform Starmer’s ratings? I feel like the ancient mariner reminding PBers of two things in particular, firstly that Jeremy Corbyn’s legacy to Sir Keir Starmer is that Starmer would need to make 124 net gains to win a majority of 2 and secondly leader net ratings are often a better predictor of electoral outcomes than standard voting intention polls. Recent events in Scotland has the potential to make Starmer’s task easier but this recent finding…
The GE2019 CON “don’t knows” are moving back I always like looking at voting polls in a group and the above table from Wikipedia shows what’s happened over the last few weeks or so. Gone are the days when the Tories were 25 or 30% behind and we see almost the majority of current surveys with leads in the teens rather than 20s. Looking at the fine detail the change is not driven by fewer 2019 CON voters saying they’re…
Division Two Derbyshire Derbyshire did much better than most predicted last year, which was good to see. They may have lost Shan Masood, their leading run scorer in cricket last season, but they have retained Mickey Arthur and brought in an interesting young batsman from his other side (Pakistan) in Haider Ali, who averages 70 in first class cricket, to replace Masood. With Leus du Plooy replacing Godleman as captain the latter will hopefully find a few runs again and…
I am only just catching up with this which in my view is deeply unpleasant and I would suggest politically naive. If Starmer’s party thinks it can win elections with this sort of nastiness then fine. I think it is a mistake and as PBers should know I should be a key target for LAB being a tactical voter in the tightest marginal in the UK – Bedford . I can only assume that whoever is responsible for signing off…
And for the GOP nomination The betting reaction to the court hearing
This is the highest YouGov has ever reported Exactly a month on from now we will be pouring over the latest local election results and if the national polls are in any way indicative then the Tories are going to be in for a dreadful night. I’ve almost stopped noticing the voting intention poles because the collapse of the Tory vote and the rise of Labour has been so pronounced and it is very hard to see a possible recovery…
One thing’s clear – this won’t help the effort for Scottish independence There is a very big story to be told but as yet we have very little idea as to what it is. What is extraordinary is that someone who appeared as powerful and very much as part of the furniture as Sturgeon is now being probed in a manner that few could have envisaged a couple of days ago. The real big loser here is the effort to…