CR Poll – Lib Dems down to 17%

CR Poll – Lib Dems down to 17%

Both the Tories and Labour advance Communicate Research’s monthly poll for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday shows only minor changes from last month for the two main parties. The headline figures are LAB 41%(+1):CON 34%(+2): LD 17%(-3) This equals the lowest poll figure for more than a year for Charles Kennedy’s party and reflects that all the recent campaign skirmishes have been between the two main parties. CR do not prompt for party choice and do not weight on previous vote…

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Are we being misled by the Baxter seat calculation?

Are we being misled by the Baxter seat calculation?

Working the swing out from 1997 – not 2001 The standard way of working how many seats a party will get with a given share of the vote is to use one of the seat calculators, most commonly Martin Baxter’s, which makes its prediction based on applying the suggested uniform national swing to what happened in each of the seats in 2001. But what happens if instead you compare today’s vote shares with what happened in 1997 when a much…

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YouGov puts Labour 6% ahead

YouGov puts Labour 6% ahead

The internet pollster should steady Labour nerves This month’s YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph has LAB 38 CON 32 LD 21 This goes in the opposite direction of the week’s ICM and MORI polls which is probably explained by the fact that YG do not filter by whether people are likely to vote. So the pollsters that usually favour Labour have shown Tory progress while the normally pro-Tory internet pollster has a different view. Discuss. NOTE I am on…

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The next week on Politicalbetting

The next week on Politicalbetting

I am going on holiday tonight and will not be back until a week on Monday which means there will be a limited service on the site over the next ten days. I can just about generate new articles and publish them on my Sony Ericsson 910 smart phone, and have one or two general items in my “store”, but the level of coverage will be reduced. When I return I will be devoting myself full-time, apart from a house…

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Tories back at 200 on spread markets

Tories back at 200 on spread markets

Mori’s 37% Tory share gives market a boost Today’s Mori poll in the FT has led, inevitably, to money going on the Tories in the spread-betting markets. The shares of LAB 39: CON 37: LD 18 are the best for Michael Howard’s party for years and were only exceeded in the strange circumstances of the 2000 petrol crisis and in the aftermath of David Kelly’s death in 2003. Following on from the improved figures from ICM earlier in the week…

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Mori poll: Tories up 5% to 37%

Mori poll: Tories up 5% to 37%

Are Labour’s campaign tactics working? The February MORI poll for the Financial Times has the Tories up 5% to one of their highest levels for a long time. The vote shares with comparisons to the January survey are:- LAB 39: CON 37 (+5): LD 18 (-4). The move to the Tories is in line with the ICM poll on Tuesday and seems partly at the expense of “others” which would appear to be down at 6% – reflecting a big…

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Is the Iraq war still an issue?

Is the Iraq war still an issue?

Will voters care about today’s Guardian revelations? The extent to which the Iraq war will be a General Election issue could be tested by revelations in the Guardian today that the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith QC, warned Prime Minister Tony Blair less than two weeks before the invasion that military action could be deemed illegal. According to the report, the Government was so concerned that it might be prosecuted that it set up a team of lawyers to prepare for…

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Do women prefer Michael?

Do women prefer Michael?

Why is Howard beating Blair for female support? With the betting markets moving a notch to the Tories following the Guardian ICM survey further information from the poll, now available, shows the potential big gender gap at the coming election. Interviewees were asked to rate whether a number of leading politicians were “an asset or a liability to their party”. Tony Blair came out with a rating of 45-43 in favour – but there was a huge difference between the…

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