Betting on votes – not seats With Labour’s victory being almost as big a certainty as Sunderland South being the first seat to declare there’s increasing interest in the party vote share markets where you do not have to factor in the complicated and varied considerations about how the seats will divide. And it is here that you can bet for or against the findings of specific opinion pollsters. If you think that YouGov are predicting this one best then…
Could the small circulation Indy have an impact? With the Independent looking set to endorse the Lib Dems on Thursday today’s splash lead seeks to undermine Labour’s core strategy for dealing with the Lib Dem threat. The above is the front page that’s in the shops this morning and might well have an influence beyond the few hundred thousand who buy the paper each day. The story is very clear and could make Labour’s task in the final few days…
Predicted Labour majority 78 seat (+2) Predicted vote shares LAB 37.6 ( -0.1) : CON 33.4 (-0.3): LD 21.9 (+0.2) Today’s bet of the day – the 5/1 against the Tories getting most votes – has now been tightened to 7/2. The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index. Please note that the vote share markets are based…
bbc Can the Lib Dems get more than 69 MPs? After a week which has seen the defection of veteran Labour MP Brian Sedgemore , the publication of the Attorney-General’s advice on the legality of the war, and the appearance of the three main party leaders on BBC’s Question Time special political gamblers have started backing the Liberal Democrats in earnest. The spread-betting price has edged up and now stands with IG Index at 66-69 seats SPREAD-BETTING EXPLAINED. For those…
I was hoping that our final General Election competition would have been published yesterday but other pressures have put this back until the weekend. In the meantime Binarybet.com have told us that “we will be delighted to offer an account with £1000 cash in it to the winner of your competition. If the winner already has a Binary account, then we will deposit £1000 into it. ” Binarybet.com will be delighted to offer an account with £1000 cash in it…
Can it get better for Howard in the final phase? With YouGov’s latest survey this morning showing the Tories still four points behind could there be some consolation for the Tories in the “final week rule”. This is that the party in second place in the polls at the start of the final week improves by polling day – a factor that is said to have happened in all but one election of modern times. This could be helped by…
Iraq continues to depress Labour seat prices In spite of the strong ICM poll showing for Labour this morning the main attention of elections gamblers has been the impact on the outcome of today’s formal disclosure of the Attorney-General’s advice on the legality of the Iraq War. As reported last night IG Index marked Labour down sharply following last night’s leaks. This did not prompt an immediate response elsewhere and it has only been late this afternoon that all the…
Start collecting your winnings on Blair’s 2005 election victory In a remarkable move this afternoon the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power have announced that the election is over and will pay out from today on all bets on Labour placed before Thursday 28th April. They say they are doing this because of “Labour’s increasing lead in the opinion polls†and hardly anybody is betting on anything other than a Labour victory in this market. The price on Tony Blair’s party has…