Which prices will look like this tomorrow night? The above was a live chart from Betfair from the night of November 2/3 2004 and shows the dramatic change in the fortunes of John Kerry as news came through first of good exit polls and then the reality of what had actually happened. For there’s is probably no better way of looking at this election than following the betting and our suggestion would be the Betfair Labour seats market. For unlike…
It’s Tony Blair with a 90 seat majority After more than a month of the “Balance of Money” predictions the eve of poll markets show that punters are expecting Tony Blair to be returned tomorrow with a majority of 90 seats. These represent the collective view of gamblers who have been backing up their judgements with hard cash. The eve of poll figures are:- Predicted Labour majority 90 seats (+8) Predicted vote shares LAB 37.3 (+0.3) : CON 32.3 (-0.9):…
A hung parliament & one punter loses £168,000 An IG punter will be looking at Thursday night’s counts with even greater interest after making what is the biggest reported wager of the campaign so far. He has bought Labour on the overall majority spread market at £2000 a seat above 84 seats. This means that if Labour fail to secure a Commons majority the punter will lose a staggering £168,000 rising at the rate of £4,000 a seat for every…
We are very sorry for the delays and service problems today. This has been by far and away the busiest day ever on the site and although we had expanded capacity to cope we are being stretched to the limits. Please be patient especially during the 1200 – 1400 period UK time when demand is at its peak. Mike Smithson Robert adds: I’m sorry about the problems, we’ve never seen traffic like this before. I’ve just had to beef up…
Will losses be more than Tony Blair’s feared one in ten? As Tony Blair seeks to focus wavering Labour supporters on the implications of “one in ten†supporters from last time not going with the party on Thursday it’s worth looking again at some the detail from recent polls. We have raised this before but according to the last ICM poll for which there is full data the equivalent of 2 out of every 11 people told the interviewer that…
Has Tony Blair repeated the 1997 and 2001 magic? Tony Blair is heading for another landslide according to the Martin Baxter formula which takes a weighted average of the latest polls and then applies the changes on a uniform swing basis to each individual seat. The Baxter “poll of polls†has LAB 38.8: CON 31.1: LD 22.2 which in terms of projected seats in the next House of Commons comes out at CON 166: LAB 395: LD 57 His figures…
Predicted Labour majority 80 seats (+2) Predicted vote shares LAB 37 ( -0.3) : CON 33.2 (-0.4): LD 22.2 (+0.2) Labour’s projected majority in our balance of money prediction based on the collective decisions of spread-betting gamblers sees the party move up two seats. This is caused almost entirely by the sad death of the Liberal Democrat candidate in Staffordshire which means that there will be no election in this Tory stronghold on Thursday. The vote share projection show moves…
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