St George’s day is as good a time as any to look again at one hurdle that Michael Howard should be able to surmount on May 5 – the Conservatives could win most votes in England. Four years ago they were just six points adrift south of the border and if voting goes according to our BALANCE OF MONEY predictions then Michael Howard’s party will win the popular vote in this part of the UK. With 529 seats of the…
Will this be the scene outside Labour HQ two weeks today? If our balance of money predictions are anything to go by then political gamblers believe that Tony Blair is heading for a return to Downing Street with a substantial majority even though Labour will poll less than 37% of the national vote. Projected UK vote shares: LAB 36.9 (nc): CON 33.7 (-0.2) : LD 21.5 (-0.1)) Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 76 seats (nc) With the polls stabilising the…
Can Tory voters be motivated and Labour ones demotivated at the same time Ever since Lynton Crosby was appointed as Tory Campaign chief last October I have been intrigued by the possibility that he could play a final week tactic that worked to bring John Howard to power in the 1996 Australian General Election. There, as things looked bleak John Howard all but conceded the election but urged that on polling day voters would “send a message†to the then…
As the projected majority moves to 76 what’s left of Michael Howard’s dream? With today’s BALANCE OF MONEY prediction seeing another rise in the projected Labour majority and only a fortnight to go to polling day is there anything left in this election for Michael Howard and the Tory party. In just fifteen days our predictions, based on the collective view of gamblers on the UK’s main spread-betting markets, has seen the projected Labour majority move from 52 seats on…
Tories static – Lib Dems up 2 at expense of Labour Today’s Guardian ICM poll with changes on Monday survey by the same pollsters has CON 33 (nc): LAB 39 (-2): LD 22 (+2). The increase for Charles Kennedy’s party is in line with other recent polls. The party, however, sees a decline in its support in the latest daily tracking poll from the British Electoral Study of those certain to vote where the figures are CON 35.3(-0.2):LAB 36.2(+0.7): LD…
In only two of the General Elections over the past fifty years have the pollsters not over-stated Labour – February 1974 and the Tory landslide of 1983. Since then the record has been abysmal. 1992 General Election. The vast majority of polls were over the top with the Labour share with one or two notable exception Gallup and Harris. Not one single poll produced results that even hinted that John Major would win by a margin of 8%. Probably the…
Two Politicalbetting spread tips now showing profits Projected vote shares: LAB 37.4 (+0.6): CON 34.1 (-0.2) : LD 21.6 (+0.2)) Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 74 seats (-2) Yesterday Labour was moving up in the majority projection but was down just a touch in the vote share share. Today it is the other way round. The big betting reported to us today has been on the Lib Dems in the vote share markets. We tipped this when the buy price…
If people think the Tories might win, they won’t. If they think they won’t, they might Everyday thousands of internet users in at least ninety countries round the world are visiting the site to read the articles and the discussions try to find out what is going on in the May 5th General Election. Everyday at least half a dozen overseas news organisations contact me and ask for my view of what the outcome will be. Everyday I am reminded…