The election that shaped modern polling The biggest election shock certainly since I started taking an interest in politics was in 1992 when against all the odds John Majors tories managed to hang on to a majority Lots of reasons were put forward at the time about why the pollsters got it so wrong and it was this election that led to a discussion of the “Shy Tory” syndrome. Those backing Major’s party were said to be reluctant to admit…
One of the things the government needs to do if it has any chance of having a better general election result than the current polls imply is making sure the performance of the NHS is doing better than it currently is. Whilst throwing cash at the NHS won’t immediately fix the problems, I wonder if they can fix issues with the NHS in other ways (apart agreeing deals with striking NHS staff.) The spectre of the pandemic is still having…
it is very hard to see any outcome for the next general election that does not involve the Tories losing a lot of seats. Even if we take the most favourable current poll for Sunak’s party, R&W on Monday, the Tories are 12% behind. At GE2019 the blues had a 12% GB national vote lead so in terms of swing there has been a 12% CON-LAB one. My guess is that there will be more of a swing back to…
This should worry the Royal Family. Most Brits seems apathetic to the coronation, particularly the young. A hereditary Head of State seems so archaic, we wouldn’t accept hereditary Prime Ministers or doctors this day and age. I think the Royals realise their youth problem which explains why Prince William has appointed darling of the young and left, Jacinda Ardern, to a prestigious role in his environment award committee and his father is reviewing his family’s shameful role in the slave…
This is from today’s Washington Post: Donald Trump’s campaign team is preparing for a state-by-state legal battle later this year over untested claims that a Civil War-era clause in the U.S. Constitution bars the former president from appearing on Republican primary ballots because of his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection…Two nonprofit groups who do not disclose all their donors, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) and Free Speech for People, have prepared multipronged legal strategies to…
I feel sorry for Humza Yousaf, for incoming leaders, Humza Yousaf has received a hospital pass than can only rival the one Karl Dönitz received on the 30th of April 1945 but Yousaf also seems very unlucky. Today afternoon’s event from Yousaf is likely to be overshadowed by this morning’s events. Kate Forbes must be glad that somebody is cleaning up this mess, there’s not an unreasonable chance that Yousaf turns out to be the SNP’s version of Liz Truss….
Tonight’s R&W poll has the LAB lead down to just 13% which is the lowest it has been since Sunak became PM. This is in line with the trend from other pollsters where all but two have the margin in the teens – not the 20s. The two exceptions have never been tested in a real election, Where I think the betting markets are wrong is that they’re not looking at the very high proportion of 2019 Tory voters who…
Just to say that I’m not able to post at the moment for family matters. Hopefully I’ll return quite soon.