politicalbetting.com

This is from today’s Washington Post: Donald Trump’s campaign team is preparing for a state-by-state legal battle later this year over untested claims that a Civil War-era clause in the U.S. Constitution bars the former president from appearing on Republican primary ballots because of his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection…Two nonprofit groups who do not disclose all their donors, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) and Free Speech for People, have prepared multipronged legal strategies to…

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I feel sorry for Humza Yousaf, for incoming leaders, Humza Yousaf has received a hospital pass than can only rival the one Karl Dönitz received on the 30th of April 1945 but Yousaf also seems very unlucky. Today afternoon’s event from Yousaf is likely to be overshadowed by this morning’s events. Kate Forbes must be glad that somebody is cleaning up this mess, there’s not an unreasonable chance that Yousaf turns out to be the SNP’s version of Liz Truss….

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Tonight’s R&W poll has the LAB lead down to just 13% which is the lowest it has been since Sunak became PM. This is in line with the trend from other pollsters where all but two have the margin in the teens – not the 20s. The two exceptions have never been tested in a real election, Where I think the betting markets are wrong is that they’re not looking at the very high proportion of 2019 Tory voters who…

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Just to say that I’m not able to post at the moment for family matters. Hopefully I’ll return quite soon.

Just one in 1 in 5 Brits would be upset if Northern Ireland left the UK which should really alarm Unionists in Northern Ireland. I’m not surprised by this polling, back in 2019 YouGov found members of the Conservative and UNIONIST Party, radicalised by Brexit, were prepared to destroy the Union to get their precious Brexit. Theoretically these members should be the most pro-Union people in the country. Unlike Scotland, the benchmark for a plebiscite in Northern Ireland is on…

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This is fascinating, the write up in The Times says Polling for The Times shows that almost a third of all voters either don’t know how they will cast their ballot or say they won’t vote at all. It shows that if an election were to be held tomorrow — and the option were available — “don’t know” would be the UK’s third largest party with 16 per cent of the vote — 2 per cent behind the Tories. Tory…

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Today’s Sunday Times is reporting that The SNP is running out of cash following an exodus of 30,000 members and the unexpected legal costs linked to the continuing police investigation into the party’s funding, its ruling council has been told. Colin Beattie, the SNP treasurer, told the national executive committee (NEC) that the party was “having difficulty in balancing the books due to the reduction in membership and donors” and that fighting a potential by-election in Rutherglen & Hamilton West…

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Tonight’s Opinium will be reassure Starmer and Labour, there was a fear that we could soon see a single digit Labour lead which would lead to some awkward conversations for Starmer. There’s been no terrible backlash for Starmer over those posters. The fifth tweet in this header beautifully sums up the shortness of the Liz Truss premiership. TSE