Does being an old Etonian still a disqualify you from being Tory leader? Whenever the Tory leadership prospects of the Shadow Education secretary, David Cameron, are discussed on the site somone will pop and say that he is “too posh”. But is this going to hinder his chances? On November 27th 1990 the then Foreign Secretary, Douglas Hurd, came a poor third to Michael Heseltine in the Tory leadership election that saw John Major become Prime Minister. At the time…
But is it because he is the only Tory that still has “name recognition” ? A Populus Poll in the Times this morning has Ken Clarke well ahead of David Davis in the Tory leadership stakes both amongst the electorate at large and. perhaps more importantly, amongst party supporters. He beats the Shadow Home Secretary by 40% to 26% amongst the general public and by 48% to 40% amongst Conservative voters. But compared with the current second favourite, David Cameron,…
Can Rifkind impede the Davis bandwagon? With Sir Malcolm Rifkind, who returned to the Commons last month after an eight year gap, launching his bid today for the Tory leadership is there any chance that the former Foreign Secretary can upset the plans of the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis? His pitch, according to this morning’s Telegraph, will be to the more moderate opinion within the party and the main theme of his campaign is that the Tories can only…
Would success here boost Tony Blair’s position The betting prices on London’s 2012 Olympic bid have tightened sharply following today’s report inspection report which praised the planning that had gone into the submission. On the international Tradesports market London’s price moved from the equivalent of about 10/1 to 6/1. Paris, meanwhile, retained its heavy front runner status but eased from about 1/9 to 1/7. The best UK bookmaker price on London is now just 7/2 while the Betfair betting exchange…
How would more accurate polls affect gambling? With the first post-May 5th opinion poll due out tomorrow there are encouraging signs that the polling industry is coming to grips with the issue that has dogged it for nearly half a century – the ongoing over-statement of Labour’s position which Martin Baxter calculated was 2.7% at the General Election. At a seminar last week organised by the Adam Smith Institute a panel consisting of myself and representatives from MORI, YouGov and…
Could Brown have to wait until 2008? Supporters of Gordon Brown and those Labour Party members strongly opposed to Tony Blair will be disappointed this morning by comments by the PM’s close political ally and EU Commissioner, Peter Mandelson, in a TV interview recorded for the Jonathan Dimbleby programme. In the immediate aftermath of May 5th there was strong speculation that Mr. Blair would be going soon and indeed the odds on a 2005 departure got as low as 2/1….
Do the front-runners justify their prices? If the betting is getting this right then the next General Election will see the Tory Party under David Davis seeking to stop Labour, under Gordon Brown, from securing a record fourth victory. In the Next Tory leader the best you can get on David is now 6/5 with no clear candidate emerging to make an effective challenge. David Cameron is on 6/1 and then Clarke, Lansley, Fox and Hague are on 10/1. In…
Can the Tories end their 23 year old by-election famine? Unless you aspire to be in the higher echelons of political anoraks you can be excused for not knowing that today is the 23rd anniversary of the last occasion when the Tories won a seat from another party in a Westminster by-election. For you have to go right back to Thursday June 3 1982 – three years into Mrs. Thatcher’s first term – to find a Tory by-election gain. That…