Why is ICM witholding its polling data?

Why is ICM witholding its polling data?

Politicalbetting to complain to British Polling Council Politicalbetting is making a formal complaint to the British Polling Council over the failure of ICM to make data available in line with its obligations under the Council’s “Statement of Disclosure”. The complaints relates to the Guardian’s July poll which was published nearly four weeks ago and for which the full data has yet to be published even though we requested it in writing and indeed initially raised the non-disclosure here on the…

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Book Value to be guest PB.C editor

Book Value to be guest PB.C editor

Will Philip add to his 3,244? Book Value (Philip Grant) will be the site’s guest editor when I go on my holiday from next Friday for two and a bit weeks. Philip was one of the first ever people to write a comment on the site and I am sure that he will be shocked to hear that has made or been mentioned in the grand total of 3,244 separate contributions since then. He also took on the task of…

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Assuming that it will be Davis taking on Brown…

Assuming that it will be Davis taking on Brown…

versus ? Is Labour set to lose its overall majority in 2009? Even though we are probably four years away from the next UK General Election betting has already started although few punters seem to have been tempted to lock up their money so far ahead. On the Spreadfair betting exchange the latest spreads are LAB 311-316 seats: CON 239-244: LD 59.5-62 . On the conventional markets the best Labour price on which party will win most seats is 2/5…

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Is it all going wrong for Angela Merkel?

Is it all going wrong for Angela Merkel?

After months in which her success in the German General Election was seen as almost a foregone conclusion things have started to go badly wrong for Angela Merkel. Heinrich Martz, who has become a PB.C regular, sent this tonight. All those who think the election is over had better take a second look. At the moment, the election is wide open. The CDU (42%) and FDP (6%) have a combined 48% of the vote. But the left-wing parties, the SPD…

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“Ken Clarke ready to ditch support for the Euro” – Guardian

“Ken Clarke ready to ditch support for the Euro” – Guardian

Would such a U-turn be enough to beat David Davis? After our thread yesterday on Ken Clarke’s bid for the Tory leadership comes a report this morning that the former Tory Chancellor is prepared to ditch his long-standing support for the Euro in order to position himself better in the campaign for his party’s leadership. Many observers believe that Clarke’s support for the Euro and being ready in 1999 (above) to sit alongside Tony Blair on a platform on the…

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Suddenly Ken Clarke is back in fashion again

Suddenly Ken Clarke is back in fashion again

What’s behind the betting move towards the veteran campaigner? It’s some time since we featured our chart showing prices changes in the Tory leadership race because there’s been so little movement. For weeks the implied probability based on best betting prices has David Davis at more than 55%; David Cameron on 22% and the rest of the field almost nowhere – except Ken Clarke. For the former Tory Chancellor has seen a recovery and is not far off the peak…

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Has being leader made Charles happy?

Has being leader made Charles happy?

1999 2005 Could Blackpool be a turning point? Before the Betfair betting exchange felt it had had to get respectable it ran lively markets on whether politicians and others apparently in trouble would hold onto their jobs. The whole David Kelly affair and the Hutton inquiry had very lively betting and Charles Kennedy’s failure to make his party’s response after the 2004 budget statement saw the money piling on both for and against the Lib Dem leader. Sadly we cannot…

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Robin Cook: 1946-2005

Robin Cook: 1946-2005

The third of his generation to die so young I’ve been away all weekend and it is only now that I am able to start a thread on Robin Cook – the former Labour Foreign Secretary who will always be remembered for his resignation speech just before the Iraq War started in March 2003. Almost exactly a year ago on Politicalbetting we were speculating that in the event of a hung parliament then what we termed the “Ginger Alliance” of…

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