After months in which her success in the German General Election was seen as almost a foregone conclusion things have started to go badly wrong for Angela Merkel. Heinrich Martz, who has become a PB.C regular, sent this tonight.
All those who think the election is over had better take a second look. At the moment, the election is wide open. The CDU (42%) and FDP (6%) have a combined 48% of the vote. But the left-wing parties, the SPD (29%), the Greens (8%) and the New Left (11%) have the same percentage.
If the CDU and FDP cannot gain a majority of the seats in parliament, a â€œgrand coalitionâ€ will almost certainly be formed between the CDU and SPD. This is due in large part to the fact that major leaders in the SPD and Greens would not accept a coalition with the New Left, a party formed from the marriage of the Communist PDS of eastern Germany and the far left WASG of western Germany.
At the moment, with the media fixated on Merkelâ€™s armpit and largely oblivious to Schroederâ€™s long list of failings and shortcomings, the likelihood of a â€œgrand coalitionâ€ seems quite high. And we donâ€™t expect much to change on that front as the media will certainly continue to pound away at Merkelâ€™s image…
In spite of the set-backs the best betting price you can get on Merkel becoming the next Chancellor is just 1/16.
Thanks to Henrich for keeping us up to date.