Olympic gaming

Olympic gaming

What will the British political landscape look like in July 2012? It’s easy for political gambling enthusiasts to get carried away and forget how tiny a market our hobby is compared to sports betting. For example, about £150,000 of betting on the Conservative leadership has gone through Betfair so far. That’s less than 5% of the trade on Sunday’s Chelsea–Arsenal game. However, William Hill seems to be aiming at some crossover marketing, with a selection of markets themed around the…

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Sunday press roundup, 21st August 2005

Sunday press roundup, 21st August 2005

Sunday’s stories sifted As usual for August, it’s a quiet weekend for political news, but a few pieces in today’s papers will interest political gamblers. The Conservative leadership has been a reliable source of interest since May, and continues to provide stories. The talk at the moment is of whether Kenneth Clarke and David Cameron can present a united front in a “dream ticket”. The Sunday Times reports that Lord Heseltine is backing a bid led by Clarke with Cameron…

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Saturday markets update, 20th August 2005

Saturday markets update, 20th August 2005

New, moving and interesting markets this week We haven’t seen too much dramatic action in the betting on British political events this week, so let’s take a weekend look further afield. Though when we mention Helen Clark on this site, we tend to be referring to the former MP for Peterborough, there is more betting interest in her antipodean namesake. New Zealand is less than a month from its general election, to be held on 17th September. Australian bookie Centrebet…

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Does the Conservative electoral system matter to gamblers?

Does the Conservative electoral system matter to gamblers?

Would Tory members rally around a candidate rejected by MPs? Last month, the Conservative parliamentary party voted to accept a proposed change to the party’s constitution which would return to MPs the final responsibility of electing the party leader. In the last contested election, in 2001, Conservative members chose Iain Duncan Smith, despite his having come second to Kenneth Clarke in the MPs’ ballot. The constitutional amendment must be ratified by a two-thirds majority of the party’s national convention on…

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A break from all of this….

A break from all of this….

…. …. ….but we love it really This is my last posting before my wife Jacky and I travel to our holiday cottage near Biarritz in South-West France and for the next two and a half weeks Philip Grant (Book Value) will be Politicalbetting’s guest editor. September looks like being an interesting month for political gamblers. There’s the German General Election which might not be as easy for Angela Merkel as seemed probable two or three months ago. Then there’ll…

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The disappointing summer of Sir Malcolm Rifkind

The disappointing summer of Sir Malcolm Rifkind

Does John Major’s Foreign Secretary stand an earthly? Our chart based on the best betting prices showing the implied probability of Malcolm Rifkind becoming Tory leader says it all. After an early flurry in the first week or so of the campaign when it touched 10% the Rifkind figure has slipped to barely a third of that. Even Rifkind’s much publicised “Tories are defective” statement at the weekend has not given him the boost he must have hoped for. Given…

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Follow “Wat Tyler” for the best Tory form guide

Follow “Wat Tyler” for the best Tory form guide

Who is David Davis’s web cheer-leader attacking today? Punters wanting to find out which contender members of the Davis Davis team consider to be the greatest current threat should go to the blog of the Shadow Home Secretary’s internet cheer-leader and the comments on this site by the man behind it and who uses the alias Wat Tyler – of Peasant’s Revolt fame. For almost every day visitors to his site are treated to fierce, biting and usually amusing attacks…

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Is this the White House line-up for 2008?

Is this the White House line-up for 2008?

Can Hilary become a less divisive figure? It’s nearly three weeks since we last looked at the 2008 White House race and since then there have been some polls which reinforce the view that the former Mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani will be lined up against the New York Senator and former First Lady, Hilary Clinton. Usually at this stage in the cycle the suggested possibilities for their parties’ Presidential nominations are people with little name recognition whose first…

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