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Saturday markets update, 20th August 2005

20/8/2005 Editor

New, moving and interesting markets this week We haven’t seen too much dramatic action in the betting on British political events this week, so let’s take a weekend look further afield. Though when we mention Helen Clark on this site, we tend to be referring to the former MP for Peterborough, there is more betting interest in her antipodean namesake. New Zealand is less than a month from its general election, to be held on 17th September. Australian bookie Centrebet…

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Does the Conservative electoral system matter to gamblers?

19/8/2005 Editor

Would Tory members rally around a candidate rejected by MPs? Last month, the Conservative parliamentary party voted to accept a proposed change to the party’s constitution which would return to MPs the final responsibility of electing the party leader. In the last contested election, in 2001, Conservative members chose Iain Duncan Smith, despite his having come second to Kenneth Clarke in the MPs’ ballot. The constitutional amendment must be ratified by a two-thirds majority of the party’s national convention on…

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A break from all of this….

18/8/2005 Editor

…. …. ….but we love it really This is my last posting before my wife Jacky and I travel to our holiday cottage near Biarritz in South-West France and for the next two and a half weeks Philip Grant (Book Value) will be Politicalbetting’s guest editor. September looks like being an interesting month for political gamblers. There’s the German General Election which might not be as easy for Angela Merkel as seemed probable two or three months ago. Then there’ll…

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The disappointing summer of Sir Malcolm Rifkind

17/8/2005 Editor

Does John Major’s Foreign Secretary stand an earthly? Our chart based on the best betting prices showing the implied probability of Malcolm Rifkind becoming Tory leader says it all. After an early flurry in the first week or so of the campaign when it touched 10% the Rifkind figure has slipped to barely a third of that. Even Rifkind’s much publicised “Tories are defective” statement at the weekend has not given him the boost he must have hoped for. Given…

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Follow “Wat Tyler” for the best Tory form guide

16/8/2005 Editor

Who is David Davis’s web cheer-leader attacking today? Punters wanting to find out which contender members of the Davis Davis team consider to be the greatest current threat should go to the blog of the Shadow Home Secretary’s internet cheer-leader and the comments on this site by the man behind it and who uses the alias Wat Tyler – of Peasant’s Revolt fame. For almost every day visitors to his site are treated to fierce, biting and usually amusing attacks…

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Is this the White House line-up for 2008?

15/8/2005 Editor

Can Hilary become a less divisive figure? It’s nearly three weeks since we last looked at the 2008 White House race and since then there have been some polls which reinforce the view that the former Mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani will be lined up against the New York Senator and former First Lady, Hilary Clinton. Usually at this stage in the cycle the suggested possibilities for their parties’ Presidential nominations are people with little name recognition whose first…

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Why is ICM witholding its polling data?

14/8/2005 Editor

Politicalbetting to complain to British Polling Council Politicalbetting is making a formal complaint to the British Polling Council over the failure of ICM to make data available in line with its obligations under the Council’s “Statement of Disclosure”. The complaints relates to the Guardian’s July poll which was published nearly four weeks ago and for which the full data has yet to be published even though we requested it in writing and indeed initially raised the non-disclosure here on the…

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Book Value to be guest PB.C editor

13/8/2005 Editor

Will Philip add to his 3,244? Book Value (Philip Grant) will be the site’s guest editor when I go on my holiday from next Friday for two and a bit weeks. Philip was one of the first ever people to write a comment on the site and I am sure that he will be shocked to hear that has made or been mentioned in the grand total of 3,244 separate contributions since then. He also took on the task of…

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