Markets open on the Berlin standoff

Markets open on the Berlin standoff

The bookie favourite is Anegla Merkel heading a grand coalition While Germany awaits confirmation of which parties will form their next government, Paddy Power have introduced two markets on what will happen next in Berlin. It has made a grand coalition the favourite with a price of just 1/2 that the CDU/CSU & SPD parties will rule together. The second favourite coalition grouping, at 2/1/ is an alliance between SPD, Green & FDP. On who the next Chancellor will be…

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WANTED – Another David Blunkett Market

WANTED – Another David Blunkett Market

Will he be promoted, sacked or just remain in his current job? It’s been a profitable twelve months for punters betting on David Blunkett – the former Home Secretary who resigned in December during the Kimberley Quinn paternity saga and then was invited by Tony Blair to return to the Cabinet as Pension Secretary just five months later. On December 1st we said bet at 7/2 against Blunkett having to step down before the end of the year. Then on…

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Germany’s election – where did the polls go wrong?

Germany’s election – where did the polls go wrong?

What will be the eventual shape of the new parliament in Berlin? Today’s results from the German General Election have completely blown apart what the opinion polls were predicting. The final surveys had the CDU/CSU on 41.5-42% with the SPD on 32.5-33% and the FDP at 7.5-8%. Yet from the results that have been coming in all evening it looks as though the CDU/CSU will finish up on 35.4%; the SPD on 34.2% and the FDP on 10%. So for…

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The David Davis lead gets bigger

The David Davis lead gets bigger

Tory Leadership – RED Davis: BLUE Cameron: BLACK Clarke: GREEN Fox ..and a “no-brainer Tory leadership bet Our updated chart showing the implied probabilities of the front-runners in the Tory leadership contest based on the best betting prices available will provide considerable cheer to David Davis supporters – particularly his web cheer leader, the so-called Wat Tyler, who asked specifically for it to be published. The Ken Clarke progress has faltered in the past few days following Davis’s big speech…

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Is it time to bet on Angela?

Is it time to bet on Angela?

Polls show it could still go either way With just one day to go before the Germans vote in their General Election a new poll shows that Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU might just get enough votes which when combined with the FPD could squeeze a majority by a whisker. Other polls have her just under-shooting and the final margin might be fractions of a point either way and there are still a lot of voters who are undecided. German opinion polls…

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Will Charles get his job security plan?

Will Charles get his job security plan?

Does the party want to make it harder for the leader to be replaced? We might get a better idea about Charles Kennedy’s standing amongst Lib Dem activists following a decision to ask next week’s party conference to change the rules to make it harder for somebody to mount a challenge for the party leadership. In what could be a dangerous move for Kennedy delegates will be asked to change the current system where the support of two of its…

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Alastair Campbell goes for David Davis

Alastair Campbell goes for David Davis

Is the former spin-master just playing games? In a Labour view of the Tory leadership candidates in the Times this morning Alastair Campbell makes a scathing attack on Ken Clarke, dismisses David Cameron as a toff, and ends up concluding that David Davis will be the likely winner. It should be noted that Campbell and Davis are known to be on relatively good terms although the former Number 10 PR boss states that the Shadow Home Secretary is “.. is…

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Could there be a Lib Dem-Tory coalition?

Could there be a Lib Dem-Tory coalition?

Is it feasible to think that Kennedy and Clarke/Davis could do a deal? With the party conference season due to open at the weekend in Blackpool the Lib Dem Campaign Chairman, Tim Razzell, has poured cold water on suggestions that the party could consider a deal with the Tories if the next General Election produced an inconclusive result. He was quoted by the BBC as saying he found it “almost impossible to believe” the Lib Dems could do a deal…

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