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Tory leadership: Implied probability of Davis based on best betting price What are the dangers of having less than a 50:50 chance? One of the key arguments used by Davis’s team as they have sought to persuade Tory MPs to make public declarations of support has been the Shadow Home Secretary’s position in the betting. After all, they were saying, if the bookies are rating Davis so highly you would be a fool to back anybody other than the “obvious”…

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Big changes on the betting markets this morning after the front-runner, David Davis, made his 20 minutes speech to delegates assembled in Blackpool’s Winter Gardens. On the Betfair betting exchange the Davis price opened at 0.78/1 – thus a £100 bet would produce profits of £78. Within an hour of him finishing the price had slumped to 1.08/1. So a wining bet will, as of time of posting, produce £108. This is a long way off what 0.58/1 that was…

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Tory leadership: RED Davis, BLACK Clarke, BLUE Cameron, GREEN Fox But will he suffer the favourite’s curse? For all the media is focusing on Ken Clarke’s speech this morning the big change in our implied probability chart based on best betting prices has been towards the 38 year old Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron, who is now back to second favourite. The Shadow Home Secretary goes into his platform speech today with the knowledge that in terms of public declarations…

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After a morning of relatively heavy activity on the betting markets the ex-Etonian, David Cameron, has now moved into second favourite position on Betfair. At the time of this post he was on was at 4/1 compared with the 4.6/1 available on Ken Clarke. Whether this will be sustained after Ken Clarke’s speech this afternoon we will have to wait and see but Cameron continues to get serious attention from the punters. David Davis, meanwhile, has moved a little bit…

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Could we be heading for a Davis-Cameron final? The first day “winner” of the Tory Party conference according to the way the betting has moved is indisputably the Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron. While all the other contenders have seen their prices ease or stay the same only Cameron has seen a sharp tightening. Although Ken Clarke is still second in the betting behind David Davis the former Chancellor’s price has eased while Cameron’s has seen a very sharp movement…

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Can the former Foreign Secretary make the speech his life? May is a long time ago and it’s probably been forgotten that in the early phases of this seemingly never-ending contest Sir Malcom Rifkind was joint second favourite at just 9/1. But it was always going to be hard for the Foreign Secretary in the last Tory Government who lost his seat in 1997. It took him eight years to get back to Westminster and on his return he faced…

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