Is it worth betting on Blair being defeated? With the crucial vote taking place later today on the Terror bill William Hill are offering odds of 1/2 that Tony Blair’s 90 day detention period for terrorist suspects will become law. The bookmaker is also offering 6/4 that the measure will not make it on to the statute book at this attempt. This is quite a tough one to call because even if it does go the Government’s way today the…
The Times’ pollster puts Davis ahead amongst Tory voters The Times today publishes more findings from its November Populus Poll showing that of those in the survey who said they were Tories – 50% wanted Davis as leader against 37% supporting Cameron. This is a huge turnround and sparked off a great amount of activity on the betting markets. Last night the Betfair exchange had Cameron at 0.11/1 with Davis at more than 7/1. This morning Davis is down to…
Populus shows Labour lead of 8 points The November Populus survey in the Times this morning gives Labour an 8 point lead over the Tories and is in sharp contrast with the BPIX poll at the weekend which had the two main parties within two points. The shares were with changes on last month: CON 32 (+2): LAB 40 (nc): LD 19 (-2). And on Tony Blair himself Labour voters disagreed by 54 to 41 with the statement that “the…
Punters think they’ll be leaving 42 weeks earlier After a week which has seen the Blunkett resignation; the Government’s majority being reduced to one on the Terror Bill, and an opinion poll showing the Tories only two points behind there’s been big movement on the betting markets. Punters having been moving out of Labour as the next General Election winners and the prices on the “When will Blair go” indicate a much earlier departure than gamblers were ready to risk…
The Lib Dems do 2 points better if Davis wins The Tories would only perform marginally better against Gordon Brown under David Cameron than David Davis according to an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph this morning. If it was Brown versus Davis the split would be: Lab 41: CON 33: LD 18 If it was Brown versus Cameron the split would be: Lab 41: CON 34: LD 16 To the question of which contender would encourage “people like you”…
Updated 0940 Remember Nixon-Kennedy from 1960 As I predicted on Tuesday David Davis, did much better than expectations and this is being seen as a big boost to his campaign. But how much better, will it help him and are there still betting possibilities? According to today’s YouGov poll in the Telegraph Tory members who had watched the programme said Davis won by 45-18. Members are backing Cameron for leader by 68-32. This is down from 77-23 ten days ago….
Only the “don’t knows” will switch today The BBC devoted the whole of last night’s Question Time to three Davids: Conservative leadership contenders Davis and Cameron, and moderator Dimbleby. If you didn’t catch the broadcast, you can watch it by following the video link here. The opinion of most of our contributors was that neither Davis nor Cameron made a fatal mistake or scored an overwhelming hit: and despite Davis’s poor performance on the platform at the Tories’ October conference…
The story may not be over Before David Blunkett‘s resignation from the Cabinet yesterday, Liberal Democrat spokesman David Laws commented that Blunkett had “used up eight of his nine lives”. Number nine has gone now, in what must surely end any future hopes of high office. But what does it mean for the other great survivor of politics, Tony Blair? Reinstating Blunkett in the Cabinet immediately after the General Election in May showed great faith in his character. That’s now…