Its Fox vs Clark In First Leadership Cull Bookmakers William Hill make Liam Fox their 5/6 odds-on favourite to be the first Tory leadership candidate to be balloted out of the running, closely followed by Ken Clarke who is priced at Even money. The other prices for the early departure are David Cameron 11/1 and David Davis 25/1 We think Hills have priced this wrong because the big move today on the betting exchanges has been an easing of the…
Is the main impact just to raise Cameron’s profile? Following David Cameron’s appearance on Question Time last night and reports that the Mail Group is “seeking to dig up the dirt” on him the big question before the crucial first ballot is who all this is helping and who is being hurt? Watching the Shadow Education Secretary’s response on Question Time last night and the reaction of the audience I could not help but think that the main impact of…
How the betting markets are rating the candidates Our latest chart showing the implied probability of victory based on the best betting prices shows the fortunes of the four still in the race over the past seven days. The big loser at the moment is the former Chancellor and contender in 1997 and 2001, Ken Clarke. He’s seen further slippage today and might not even make the second MPs ballot next Thursday. A further blow was the Cameron campaign announcing…
Merkel’s election means we can now announce the results On the August Bank Holiday, we put up a prediction competition based on September’s political events around the world. We had a close result, and the top three contestants were: Haz S: 56 points Chris: 54 points Ben: 51 points The winner Haz S, also known as Harry Spencer, lives in North Norfolk and is a sixth-form student who aims to become a lawyer. Outside politics he enjoys tennis, music, computer…
The Tory hopefuls face their first scrutiny by fellow MPs The first big test for the Tory hopefuls at Westminster – a hustings meeting organised by the right-wing 92 Group – has led to a tightening of the David Cameron price, and a slight easing of that available on Liam Fox following his move forward earlier after getting the backing of the “Cornerstones”. Each of the four candidates was “grilled” by an audience of about 50 MPs for about 25…
…. We are not sure whether the person behind the Clarke tea-shirts is backing the ex-Chancellor or whether the plan is to block his leadership bid. Whatever Ken Clarke is having something of a roller coaster experience as he tries, at what surely must be his final attempt, to become leader of his party. For a long period his USP had been that the polls showed that he was the only contender with any chance of making significant progress at…
David Cameron Best bookie price 8/11: Best betting exchange 1.02/1. Stormed up the betting last week from a 10/1 outsider to an odds-on favourite. In spite of several polls showing big lead amongst Tories he still has to get over the MPs’ ballot – the first round of which closes on Tuesday. Being just 39 and only having completed four full years in the Commons might make it hard to win over enough MPs. It is conceivable that he will…
Rifkind pulls out – Cameron’s price eases As had been widely predicted the former Foreign Secretary who returned to the House in May after a gap of eight years, Sir Malcom Rifkind, has pulled out of the Tory leadership race. He said he wanted the party to be led by a One Nation Conservative which is thought to mean that he will line up behind his cabinet colleague in last Tory Government, Ken Clarke. The move makes next Tuesday’s first…