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Thanks to David Cowling for compiling the above tables which give a real sense of how the political environment has changed since 2019 when most of the seats up on Thursday were last fought. The fact that there’s a current average 15% lead compared with 4% four years ago suggests that Starner’s Labour should see a considerable number of gains from the Tories. I tend to regard LAB voting intention to signify being anti-Tory and that people will vote in…

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Starmer’s approval rating up 5 Starmer maintains his “best PM” position Mike Smithson

Is the WH2024 nomination race now over? The big news in US politics over the past week has been the announcement by Joe Biden that he wants to seek a second term. If he was nominated and won he would be 86 years old at the end of his term. This is very much against public opinion in the US where voters across the board are opposed to such a move. A poll for Forbes found only 26% of respondents…

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YouGov have done some analysis of the local elections which allows them to make the above predictions. Ladbrokes have markets up on who will control the below councils after Thursday’s elections, if you can spot some value let me know in the comments. TSE

Speaking to a Tory activist friend earlier on this week about how things are going on the campaigning front and they said that if the locals were solely about Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer then it wouldn’t be such a bad night for the Tories on Thursday which reflects the leader ratings which are better for the Tories than the headline voting intention figures, although last night’s Opinium might be a harbinger of that unravelling. However the rather large…

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And Starmer’s leader ratings a net 15% ahead I tend to favour the surveys from the pollsters that have done at least one general election which is why Opinium gets more attention than those which started after GE2019. These latest numbers are good for Labour and bad for the Tories. We’ll get another view of public opinion from Thursday’s local elections. Mike Smithson

This looks very interesting from a media standpoint because the Mirror has never really been a big backer of the monarchy. What is getting the paper’s support is the plan by Charles to cut back on the costs of the monarchy that are picked up by taxpayers – this starts with a scaled-down Coronation. I think he is reading the public mood correctly. Mike Smithson

It was last January that we last did an analysis like the one above on what YouGov is finding when it asks GE2019 Tory voters what they would do now. What is interesting is that there has been almost no movement over the past four months. Sunak is still struggling with those who backed what was then Johnson’s party at the last election. By contrast 68% of GE2019 LAB voters are still saying they back the party. All this is…

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