Thanks to David Cowling for compiling the above tables which give a real sense of how the political environment has changed since 2019 when most of the seats up on Thursday were last fought.

The fact that there’s a current average 15% lead compared with 4% four years ago suggests that Starner’s Labour should see a considerable number of gains from the Tories.

I tend to regard LAB voting intention to signify being anti-Tory and that people will vote in their elections for the party locally they perceive as being most likely to beat the Conservatives.

One of the reasons why Lib Dem campaigns are so intensive in places where they think they have a chance is to establish in voters’ minds that they are the challenger.

Mike Smithson