What do we think of this new betting market? If a British Prime Minister had gone though the problems that George Bush has had in recent weeks then all the speculation would be over whether he or she could survive. With the continuing toll in Iraq, the handling of the New Orleans disaster, the failure to get his Supreme Court nominee through and now the Libby indictment it is no wonder that Bush’s personal ratings have dropped to an all…
Blunkett 7/4 to be out by New Year’s Day At last! William Hill have just opened a market on whether the Work & Pensions Secretary, David Blunkett, will survive in his post until the end of the year. The price is 7/4 that he’ll be out by then and 2/5 that he’ll survive. As yet it does not appear to be online but we’ll let you know as soon as it is. Sadly the price is nothing like as good…
Take the 3/1 against Cameron getting below 66% At the May 5th General Election one of my biggest wins came from betting against the opinion polls. From my analysis I was convinced that they were overstating Labour and I backed my judgment with a four figure amount per unit spread bet. At a time when the likes of ICM, Populus and several others had the party in the 40s I bet that the equivalent of the GB share of the…
Should you be betting on an early departure? With more calls for David Blunkett to resign and after a week which has seen one Cabinet row after another spilling into the public domain the chances of Tony Blair serving a full third term must be slightly lower. On top of the spats over education policy, smoking, and the reform the benefit system, the attack on Blunkett is particularly damaging – because he is seen as being so close to Blair….
Punters believe that the 39 year old is a near certainty There’s been an overnight rush to back David Cameron on the betting markets following the publication of the first poll of Tory party members since the end of the MPs’ stage of the leadership selection process. The survey by ICM for the BBC’s Politics Show involved interviews with 215 party members who went for the younger man by more than three to one. The figures were Cameron 76%: Davis…
Amended Cameron 4-1 ahead amongst Tory voters The scale of the challenge facing the next Tory leader – whether Davis or Cameron – is reflected in the October YouGov survey for the Telegraph showing that Labour’s lead is unmoved at 8 points over the past month. The shares are LAB 40: CON 32. As yet there is no figure for the Lib Dems available on-line. A consolation for the Tories is that it could be worse. At this stage after…
It’s 3/1 against him being indicted before December 31st Following tonight’s sensational news that Lewis Libby, chief-of-staff to Dick Cheney, has resigned after being charged with perjury the focus is now on Bush’s closest adviser and architect of last November’s victory, Karl Rove. He has not been charged but the case has not been closed. The Dublin-based international betting exchange, Tradesports, has a market on whether Rove will be indicted before the end of the year.The price is about 3/1…
Chances rated at lowest level since the General Election After a week which has seen highly publicised cabinet splits over education policy and smoking and a month that has been dominated by the Tory leadership race there’s been a move against Labour on the betting markets. The chart shows the implied probability of Labour winning most seats at the next General Election based on best betting prices. A month ago Labour was rated at 66-67% – this morning the figure…