Populus gives Tories a 6% lead if Brown becomes Labour leader Our Labour General Election Index – showing the implied probability of the party winning most seats based on best betting prices – has moved just two per cent on the week in spite of all the hype associated with the change of Tory leader. We have restricted the graph to just the seven days since David Cameron was elected leader and, as can be seen, the change has been…
PB.C’s Blair Survival Index rises to 28% The second poor poll rating in five days on how a Brown-led Labour party would do against Cameron’s Conservatives has led to changes in the betting markets on when the Prime Minister will stand aside. As the chart shows the implied probability of a post 2007 departure reflected by the way punters are risking their cash has moved sharply upwards as the whole UK political scene is re-assessed following the Tory changes and…
The date-January 14th: The venue – a pub in Central London: The time – 6pm Thanks to the generosity of Tony Blair’s pollster, Philip Gould, we are able to announce the second Politicalbetting party. This will take place at a pub in Central London on Saturday January 14th from 6pm. The picture above shows Book Value (Philip Grant – the party organiser and the site’s stand-in editor) with Robert Smithson – my son who keeps the site going. This will…
.. ICM and YouGov put the Tories into the lead Two new polls for tomorrow’s Sunday papers show that the Tories are now ahead. ICM in the Sunday Telegraph has with changes on the last survey from the pollster in November CON 37%(+4): LAB 35%(-3)LD 21%(+2). YouGov has, with changes on the poll that was published in Tuesday afternoon CON 37%(+1): LAB 36%(nc):LD 18%(nc). For David Cameron and his team the ICM figures must be particularly pleasing. Excluding the extraordinary…
Who would become the next Lib Dem leader? In his “This Week” programme on BBC 1 late on Thursday night the veteran political commentator and ex-Sunday Times editor, Andrew Neil, made this statement – “I have heard that Charles Kennedy will stand down at the Lib Dems Spring Conference†This does not appear to have been picked up elsewhere and although there has been much discussion on the position of the Lib Dems in the David Cameron era the suggestion…
Can he win if people don’t like him? Tucked away in the YouGov poll that came out on Tuesday afternoon were some numbers that might be at the heart of the Labour succession and the 2009/10 General Election campaign. Electors might agree with Gordon Brown’s policies, they might respect him as a politician but they do not seem to like him. When asked whether four named politicians had “an attractive personality” the ratings were:- David Cameron 23%: Tony Blair 18%:…
Was the coverage of the poll that moved the markets a step too far? Since December 2002, almost without exception, the Times has published the regular Populus poll on the Tuesday of the first full week of the month. So far this December there has been no Populus poll in the paper and yesterday the BBC produced a survey from the pollster on the Today programme. Was that survey originally intended for the Times? Looking at the detailed data it…
Did you cash in on Cameron? The Times leads this morning with the headline “The Great Gamble” but it’s not about betting but whether the Tory choice of David Cameron is going to work. For me “The Great Gamble” consisted of the scores of betting contracts I entered into on the contest since May. With Guido expressing concern about one of the markets that I called wrongly can I reassure those concerned about my financial welfare that Cameron’s victory left…