Unrepresentative bunch as we are here, we can get an inflated idea of the prominence elections have among the public in general. Quite a few posters here will have spent an intense month focusing on today’s local elections — but that puts us in quite a minority.
Book Value to take over PB.C for a couple of days I’m going to be away at a conference on the banks of Loch Lomond for a couple of days and Philip Grant (Book Value) will be standing in as guest editor of PB.C. Thanks for giving me a break Philip. Whatever your allegiance whatever your party can I wish all the PB.C regulars who are candidates tomorrow the very best of luck and that you get the outcome you…
Punters flee Labour and back the Tories The above chart shows how punters on the Betfair betting exchange are rating the chances of Labour and the Tories wininng most seats at the next General Election. It is based over time on nthe implied probability based on the best betting price. The current price is evens on Labour and 1.04/1 on the Tories – so a bet on both would bring you certain returns although you might have to wait for…
Could the close of polls trigger concerted action against Blair? Just as the polls were closing at the end of local election day in May 2003 the Tory trade spokesman Crispin Blunt, resigned his front bench post in what appeared to be a planned and concerted move to bring down the then Tory leader, Ian Duncan Smith. The pundits had been predicting a very poor Tory performance in the elections and Blunt’s move appeared to be timed to coincide with…
Punters make Labour favourite for next time as well Nine years today ago these were the images that were being beamed to the world after Labour’s extraordinary General Election landslide. Even though the tone of headlines might be a bit different on the morning of May 2nd 2006 it is a good moment to pose the question – could Labour do it again? And if the party did win the next election, of course, that could mean a further nine…
Were the Sunday Express figures part of the latest Guardian poll? Yesterday the Sunday Express published an ICM poll which suggested that votes in the local elections on Thursday would split CON 29%, LAB 27%, LD 22%. There was little other data accompanying the report and Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report concluded “I’m reserving judgement till I see the tables on the ICM website” Given it’s been a bank holiday weekend it is not surprising that nothing has yet…
Looking back at the December prices on who would be first out Historical betting odds are often a fascinating way of looking at how perceptions can change in only a very short period and in December we covered a market from PaddyPower on which cabinet minister would be first to resign their post or be sacked during 2006. Then Ruth Kelly of education and Margaret Beckett from environment food and rural affairs were joint 9/2 favourites to be first to…
Are the latest results a pointer to Thursday’s Battle for the Town Halls? April can be a bit of a poor month for local by-elections, in April 2005 there were only three across the entire country. Thankfully April 2006 has been a bit more interesting with 24 council by-elections being held up and down the country, and with the local elections being held in 176 councils next Thursday everyone will be wondering whether we have have a precursor to those…