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What happens if there’s no improvement in the polls for the Tories or the polls gets worse for the Tories? The reality is Rishi Sunak isn’t very good, he lost to Liz Truss, who lost to a lettuce, only her implosion led to Sunak become Prime Minister, he only looks good because his two immediate predecessors were so bad there isn’t an adjective in the English language to accurately describe them. Alastair Meeks makes this observation (before last night’s Opinium)…

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Tonight is Eurovision night and it being held in Liverpool, home of the six times European Cup/Champions League winners. My usual strategy is to lay Le Royaume-Uni, which became a risky strategy last year. My two longshot bets for tonight are Croatia and Israel. I don’t expect the favourites Sweden to win, I would sooner listen to Katie Price covering a Radiohead track. TSE

I have raised this before about current polling and there has not been any real change in the fact that a significant proportion of GE2019 CON voters continue to tell pollsters that they don’t know. The chart based on the last Opinium poll numbers shows the current breakdown of voting intention by those who backed the Tories at the last general election. As can be seen 24% of those who voted for Johnsone’s party in December 2019 are currently telling…

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Last week’s locals weren’t quite as good as many within the Labour Party hoped but there is little doubt that the party is in good position to win back power at the next election. The big question is whether Starmer will have an overall majority or not and on that there are differing views. Thus in the immediate aftermath of the May 4th results, the leading commentator and analyst John Rentoul was reporting Prof John Curtice that there would be…

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The big question over the Archbichop’s attack on Sunak’s small boats clampdown is whether it impacts public opinion and is likely to encourage other opponents of to step up their opposition. The most recent YouGov poll on the issue had 50% backing Sunak and 36% opposing. My guess is that the split will be tighter following his intervention. It could also impact on the courts and how judges deal with the cases that are likely to arise. It also put…

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It is again time to review what the “intellectually challenged from the neck up” party (© Joanna Cherry) – or the SNP as it is usually known – is up to. Having finally found an auditor (though, rather embarrassingly for a pro-independence party, there was not one auditor anywhere in Scotland willing or able to take on the job) the Holyrood government has decided to reform the Scottish criminal justice system. In one of his previous roles as Justice Minister,…

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The people have spoken, at least those who vote at local elections. And the basic message is clear: ‘Tories out’. With rare exceptions, the Tories got battered up and down England, and while Labour aren’t at the heights they hit in the mid-90s the Tories are at the same depths. Two questions arise. When will we get an election? And will Rishi Sunak fight it? On the second question, I think he almost certainly will. The Johnsonites in Parliament now…

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