Can Johnson pull a rabbit out of the hat on the bill?

Can Johnson pull a rabbit out of the hat on the bill?

Will my 18/1 long-shot stop another damaging rebellion? With the controversial Education Bill coming back to the Commons the next few days could be crucial for the leadership chances of Alan Johnson – currently in the second favourite slot and who I suggested was a good value bet at 18/1. The bill’s passage gives the new Education Secretary a great platform to build up his public profile and to show his political skills dealing with the most divisive domestic Labour…

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Will this woman add further to Labour’s woes?

Will this woman add further to Labour’s woes?

Make a few bob on the Peter Law seats not being won back? So far there’s been little interest in the Betfair markets on the June 29th by-elections to fill Blaenau Gwent seats that the former Peter Law used to occupy at Westminster and the Welsh Assembly. On the face of it the area is a traditional solid Labour strong-hold and the seats should be returning to the party as a matter of course. Peter Law won in May 2005…

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Could Cameron catch a Chislehurst cold?

Could Cameron catch a Chislehurst cold?

Will B&C be the first Tory by-election hold of the 21st Century? For a party whose performance at by-elections can best be described as pitiful the Tories have had a remarkably good new millennium. For the only seat they have had to defend was Romsey in 2000 – a seat made vacant by the tragic fire in which Michael Colvin died. They lost it to the Lib Dems. The party went through the whole of the 2001-2005 Parliament without the…

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Sean Fear’s local election commentary

Sean Fear’s local election commentary

THE TORIES REGAIN METROLAND Few parts of the Country were traditionally more solid for the Conservatives than John Betjeman’s Metroland, the leafy suburbs that sprung up in the Twenties and Thirties in West, and North West London, as the Underground pushed out beyond London into the Countryside and connected towns and villages like Harrow, Hendon, Finchley and Wembley to the Metropolis. Most seats in this region delivered five figure Tory majorities at general elections with monotonous regularity, and delivered scores…

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Can Ming withstand the media barrage?

Can Ming withstand the media barrage?

How important is a good PMQ performance? Amidst all the big political stories at the moment there’s a special focus on Ming Campbell who, if you read some columnists, is on the critical list. After going through the trauma of ousting Charles Kennedy Ming finds himself under the media microscope every Wednesday when, as Lib Dem leader, he is allowed a maximum of two questions at Prime Minister’s Questions. The scrutiny has been going on since his lacklustre performance at…

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Can Labour break through the 32% ceiling?

Can Labour break through the 32% ceiling?

Will new polls confirm whether the turmoil is still causing damage? When the May Populus survey showing a Labour deficit of 8% came out last week I urged caution because the survey had been taken against a backcloth of heated speculation and talk of a Labour civil war. Often surveys that take place in such a charged atmosphere, I noted, produce extraordinary results. We should get a better measure of the current state of public opinion over the next eight…

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Why Gordon will never be leader

Why Gordon will never be leader

Has the Chancellor blown it through his natural prudence? In years to come will Gordon Brown look back on the second Wednesday of May 2006 as the time when he blew his best ever chance to become Labour leader and Prime Minister? Will he recall May 10th – just a week ago today when all the eyes were on him – as the moment he should have moved and sought to oust Blair? Will he remember the stony silence of…

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How many more of these has Tony got in his back pocket?

How many more of these has Tony got in his back pocket?

Why I’m betting again that Blair will survive Yet another week goes by and Tony Blair is still there doing what he’s always been brilliant at when things get rough – changing the media agenda. After the carefully concerted Gordon Brown barrage in the immediate aftermath of the local election results, a brace of poor opinion polls and probably the toughest PMQs of his nine year tenure Lucky Tony is just ploughing on finding other things to dominate the headlines….

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