Should Eton Dave fear the Dorneywood postie?

Should Eton Dave fear the Dorneywood postie?

Why not a Frank Luntz Cameron-Johnson test? In a review of the Labour leadership in his weekly Times column today Mathew Parris suggests that a party led by the declared Deputy contender, Alan Johnson, would be a bigger threat to David Cameron than Gordon Brown. Commenting on the former postman to Dorneywood who became General Secretary of his union Parris writes “..whenever one happens to see or listen to this man he appears well-judged, capable, moderate and likable. He is…

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Guest Slot: Mr.Chip’s guide to the 2007 French Election

Guest Slot: Mr.Chip’s guide to the 2007 French Election

Can Ségo stay silent to beat Sarkozy Just six months back, you could scoop up Ségolène Royal, the dark horse of the French left, at 12/1 when the May 2007 presidential election was sure to be a slugfest between two conservatives, Dominique de Villepin and Nicolas Sarkozy. Now, after Villepin’s spectacular implosion over a trivial change to labour law and now a Watergate-like spying scandal, Royal (at 11/4) looks like the only thing standing in the way of Sarkozy as…

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What’s behind Johnson’s deputy leadership move?

What’s behind Johnson’s deputy leadership move?

Is this the prelude to something bigger? Alan Johnson, the 13/1 second favourite to become Tony Blair’s successor, is making a move this weekend that will heighten his profile within the party and could well be a springboard to a top job bid. A much-trailed interview to be shown on GMTV on Sunday has him declaring that his interest in becoming Deputy – should John Prescott step down. He says; “People have asked me if, when there is a vacancy,…

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NOP: Labour set to win back the safest seat in Wales

NOP: Labour set to win back the safest seat in Wales

But what if the poll is as accurate as the Hartlepool one? An opinion poll by NOP for ITV isuggests that Labour is on target to win back what was its safest seat in Wales – Blaenau Gwent – in the coming parliamentary by-election. Such a result would restore Labour’s Commons majority to what it was before the Dunfermline loss and ease some of the jitters within the party. In a phone survey of with a sample of 1,000 NOP…

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Introducing the PB.C live conversations

Introducing the PB.C live conversations

First into the Hot Seat – Controversial US pollster, Frank Luntz With polling, focus groups and other methods of testing opinion playing such a big part for those who like betting on or just predicting political outcomes the site is launching the “PBC Live Conversations”. The plan is to go beyond and be more focused than our existing discussion forums by inviting prominent figures, particularly pollsters, to take part live in on-line conversations at prearranged times. I am delighted that…

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YouGov data shows Tories with a 15% lead amongst women

YouGov data shows Tories with a 15% lead amongst women

A pollling quirk or are women really flocking to Dave? The full dataset from May’s YouGov poll in the Telegraph shows a gender divide in voting intention on a scale that is almost unprecedented. The 1,009 men in the sample split CON 33: LAB 35: LD 15: OTH 15 – Labour 2% ahead The 1,093 women who were polled split CON 43: LAB 28: LD 16: OTH 13 Conservatives 15% ahead Putting these shares into the Baxter calculator Labour would…

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What about a woman to follow Ming?

What about a woman to follow Ming?

. Could one of these be Britain’s 2nd woman party leader? With the speculation about Ming’s future as Lib Dem leader it’s inevitable that people should be thinking about who could succeed him. So far the main focus has been on Nick Clegg (8/11), who did not do his chances any good the other day after being over-heard discussing Ming’s failings in a mobile phone call. As well as Clegg in the betting are David Laws (4/1), Ed Davey (5/1)…

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Who wins if Prescott goes?

Who wins if Prescott goes?

Could a contest now be a proxy vote on both Brown and Blair? The two big current issues in UK politics – Blair’s departure date and whether Brown will succeed him – could be brought to a head if the Deputy Leader and Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott steps aside and there is a contest. After a weekend of rising specualtion both Gordon Brown and Tony Blair have come to Prescott’s defence because it appears to be in the interest…

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