Is there a cover-up over YouGov’s Labour members poll?

Is there a cover-up over YouGov’s Labour members poll?

Did the pollster find out something that is politically inconvenient? Last week the internet pollster, YouGov, carried out what appears to have been its first ever media-commissioned survey of Labour party members. These party-specific polls have proved to be extraordinarily valuable in the past – so much so that in the Tory leadership races of 2001 and 2005 YouGov got the final results to within 1%. But at the weekend there was just a fleeting reference to the survey in…

Read More Read More

Does having policies matter any more?

Does having policies matter any more?

Isn’t it all about image and being seen as a nice caring person? One of my favourite contributors on PB.C is David Kendrick who pops up several times a week to make the simple argument that policies and issues play little part in deciding elections. Everything is down to whether voters like the party leaderships and that is mostly determined by how they look, talk and present themselves. Certainly the 7% lead Tory lead recorded in today Indpendent “poll of…

Read More Read More

Populus: Labour close the gap by 5%

Populus: Labour close the gap by 5%

Yet another poll shows the Lib Dems on the decline After yesterday’s Mori poll – which was actually the pollster’s survey for May, we now have the first of the June polls – from Populus in the Times. The figures, are with changes on a month ago, CON 37%(-1):LAB 34%(+4): LD18%(-2). After the May survey which was the first big move to the Tories I noted here “The interviews will have been taking place over the weekend while all the…

Read More Read More

Mori gives the Tories a ten point lead

Mori gives the Tories a ten point lead

Boost for Cameron as he reflects on his first six months in the job A Mori poll in the Sun this morning has some remarkably good news for David Cameron as he ends his first half year as leader. The projected vote shares are with the changes on last month are: CON 41%(+5), LAB 31%(-1), LD 18%(-3). Such vote shares at a General Election would, according to the Baxter calculator, produce a Commons of CON 344 seats: LAB 251: LD…

Read More Read More

Guest slot: A tour of Wales with CymruMark

Guest slot: A tour of Wales with CymruMark

Could next year’s Assembly elections see a non-Labour coalition? In all the chatter regarding the “Blair legacy” nobody seems to mention devolution. The West Lothian question raises its head on a regular basis now that England is governed by a party elected by Scottish and Welsh electors but nobody seriously suggests devolution be reversed. However Blair’s legacy could include the loss of Labour’s Welsh heartland. West of Offa’s Dyke there are a good few questions to be asked and answered…

Read More Read More

Johnson tightens to 6/1 as Straw enters deputy race

Johnson tightens to 6/1 as Straw enters deputy race

YouGov: 56% of Labour members want Prescott to stay With the Observer reporting that Gordon Brown has been warned that his “long quest to become Labour leader and Prime Minister is at risk from the rising star of Alan Johnson..” there’s been a big move to the Education Secretary in the betting markets. After Johnson started yesterday at 10/1 to become next Labour leader the price has tightened overnight to 6/1. One bookmaker is still quoting 14/1 though that won’t…

Read More Read More

Sean Fear’s local election commentary

Sean Fear’s local election commentary

The move to the Tories continues The period from and including May 4th to June 1st produced a large crop of by-elections (37 in total). Of these, 25 were contested by all three parties. Over the month, the Conservatives won 24 seats – a net gain of 8, the Liberal Democrats won 6, Labour won 3 (a net loss of 3) and Independents, minor parties, and nationalists won 4, a net loss of 5. This was the best monthly performance…

Read More Read More

Should Eton Dave fear the Dorneywood postie?

Should Eton Dave fear the Dorneywood postie?

Why not a Frank Luntz Cameron-Johnson test? In a review of the Labour leadership in his weekly Times column today Mathew Parris suggests that a party led by the declared Deputy contender, Alan Johnson, would be a bigger threat to David Cameron than Gordon Brown. Commenting on the former postman to Dorneywood who became General Secretary of his union Parris writes “..whenever one happens to see or listen to this man he appears well-judged, capable, moderate and likable. He is…

Read More Read More