Harry Hayfield’s June-July local election summary

Harry Hayfield’s June-July local election summary

After a good June do July’s results spell trouble for the Tories? In June the Conservative advance in local elections continued. The Conservatives were defending 13 seats this month and ended up with 17 seats (the majority of which were gains from the Independents). Mind you, they did manage to lose Nascot in Watford to the Lib Dems but it wouldn’t be a local by-election without a Lib Dem hiccup (remember Bromley?). So what does this mean in a national…

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Is Israel a bigger challenge for Blair than Iraq?

Is Israel a bigger challenge for Blair than Iraq?

Would things have been different if Robin Cook had been still alive? If this had been a normal Wednesday then at noon Tony Blair and David Cameron would have been facing each other across the house at Prime Minister’s Questions. With the Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, being in semi-open revolt against Blair’s line then there would have been a lot for the Tory leader and Ming Campbell to get their teeth into. For the one time when PMQs can really…

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Speed up PBC – and help reduce our costs

Speed up PBC – and help reduce our costs

Although it is the holiday period and things are a bit quieter at the moment one of the big problems we have on the site are the demands on our servers when dozens of users are trying to load and re-load very long discussions all at the same time. This can make it frustrating for users because the site seems very slow and it also means that we are using up a lot of bandwidth repeatedly sending you the same…

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Why I won’t be betting against the pollsters next time

Why I won’t be betting against the pollsters next time

Are we now in an era of more accurate polling? At the 2005 General Election I made several thousand pounds on a number of spread bets “selling” the projected Labour share. The spreads were very much in line with what the pollsters were reporting and I believed that they were over-stating the party. Thus one bet was at 38.5% against the actual 36.3% – meaning my winnings were the difference between the two numbers multiplied by the four figure sum…

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Guest slot: Tabman on the UKIP leadership election

Guest slot: Tabman on the UKIP leadership election

Could the UKIP caravan hurt the Tories? The current favourite to succeed Roger Knapman in the UKIP leadership elecrtion which closes on September 7 is MEP Nigel Farage, who stood for the party in the Bromley by-election. The key point that Farage has grasped is that UKIP can no longer rely upon being a single-issue party if it wishes to grow. In his Manifesto, he sets out his view of the Party’s philosophy: We are a unique brand. Nationalist with…

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Mori puts the Lib Dems on 24%

Mori puts the Lib Dems on 24%

A boost for Ming or the product of the firm’s methodology? The latest poll from Mori in today’s Financial Times has with changes on the last poll at the end of June CON 36 (nc): LAB 32 (-1): LD 24 (+3). – so a big boost for the Lib Dem leader with the biggest share for the party since last September. The poll is quite old. The survey started on July 20th – one day before work began on the…

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The “Hug-a-Hoodie” follow-up competition

The “Hug-a-Hoodie” follow-up competition

……and the part 1 winner is ROGER Last Sunday we launched a small prize competition. People were asked to you use their imagination to guess what will be the next David Cameron policy move after “Hug a Hoodie” There were two prizes on offer – copies of my book on politics and betting that’s just been commissioned and will be published during 2007. The first will go to the most amusing and original answer. The second will be decided after…

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Could Israel affect Tony’s departure time-table?

Could Israel affect Tony’s departure time-table?

How long can he go on with his cabinet so divided? With the situation in the Middle East continuing to take its toll how long can Tony Blair go on pursuing his aggressive pro-Israel strategy which is so unpopular in the polls and according to this morning’s papers is opening up big rifts within his cabinet? The main stories in the Sunday Telegraph, the Sunday Times and the Observer this morning focus on the critical statement issued by the former…

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