William Hill report huge interest in new market Following our call this morning for a betting market on whether leading figures will be arrested William Hill now have a market up. They opened with a price of 10/1 that the Prime Minister would be arrested in 2006 but this has been tightened after big punter interest. I think that this is worth a punt. Mike Smithson
Dave down, Ming up in YouGov’s latest tracker poll The above chart is from the latest report by Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report showing the results of the YouGov daily tracker on perceptions of leading politicians. It is all part of data in the firm’s Brand Index survey which involves questioning, online, 2,000 people everyday. Just after the local elections Cameron had a positive rating of 28%. Today’s report shows that has dipped to 12% and is now below…
Does the ex-PR boss KNOW that Blair will be out in September 2007? This week’s Spectator, out this morning, is carrying a report about a chance conversation between the ex-editor and now shadow minister, Boris Johnson and Alistair Campbell which seems to confirm that Tony Blair will step down at the 2007 party conference. The political column notes “At a coffee stall inside Lord’s cricket ground on Monday, two customers bumped into each other with a start. Alastair Campbell and…
What Labour and the Tories could do to defend themselves Anybody with any doubt about the power of the Lib Dem by-election machine should check out the excellent “British Parliamentary By Elections Since 1945” site where election literature from almost every campaign has been collected and is available to view on line. Quite simply the party is so far ahead in finding vote-switching messages and creating effective vehicles to communicate them that virtually every Tory and Labour seat in the…
The last time a party elected a leader in the face of the polls In August 2001 ICM carried out a poll to test the reactions of ordinary voters to the two remaining candidates in that year’s Tory leadership contest – Iain Duncan Smith and Ken Clarke. It will be recalled that these two had got to the final short-list after Michael Portillo had been squeezed out in the Tory MP part of the selection process. When asked to compare…
Do Scottish leaders go down badly in England? In what must be the first survey of its kind confined to one specific English region there’s striking news tonight of the different reactions voters have to the two Scottish party leaders and the English Tory one. The survey from Marketing Means was carried out last week and involved contacting 1,008 people. The vote shares found were with changes on the General Election CON 41 (+3): LAB 22 (-1): LD 30 (-3)…..
Time to make a call on the next General Election Over the weekend the city mathematician who runs Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter (right), produced another of his General Election predictions based on his “poll of polls” and applying the swing to each Westminster seat. His figures with the Tories 3.37% ahead produced a projected House of Commons of CON 267: LAB 311: LD 36 seats. So Labour would be just 13 short of an overall majority. The Tories, in spite…
Could the police inquiry really force him out? With Tony Blair spending the weekend at the G8 summit in St Petersburg this morning’s Sunday papers won’t make comfortable reading for Labour – particularly those close to the Prime Minister. For all the speculation is on how the loans/gifts for honours inquiry will impact on Number 10 and the Prime Minister himself. The Sunday Telegraph carries a report by Patrick Hennessy and Melissa Kite that friends of Lord Levy are saying…