……and the part 1 winner is ROGER Last Sunday we launched a small prize competition. People were asked to you use their imagination to guess what will be the next David Cameron policy move after “Hug a Hoodie” There were two prizes on offer – copies of my book on politics and betting that’s just been commissioned and will be published during 2007. The first will go to the most amusing and original answer. The second will be decided after…
How long can he go on with his cabinet so divided? With the situation in the Middle East continuing to take its toll how long can Tony Blair go on pursuing his aggressive pro-Israel strategy which is so unpopular in the polls and according to this morning’s papers is opening up big rifts within his cabinet? The main stories in the Sunday Telegraph, the Sunday Times and the Observer this morning focus on the critical statement issued by the former…
How Lebanon is hitting Tony Blair If you think that there has been too much polling data on PB.C this week then I am sorry but you’ll have to brace yourself for a whole lot more. For this morning I am delighted to announce that PB.C has come to an arrangement with YouGov for the regular supply of political polling data from the firm’s daily Brand Index survey. This will allow the site to feature what I’m calling – The…
But is Anthony King right with his historical comparisons? This month’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph has with changes on last month: CON 38(-1): LAB 33 (nc): LD 18 (nc). So the only difference is a one point fall in Tory support reducing the margin over Labour to 5%. These shares are broadly similar to this week’s Guardian ICM survey which had the Tories on 39% – four points ahead. The big difference between the two pollsters is the…
What’s Ming’s party’s role in the Cameron-Brown world? The July ICM poll in the Guardian did match its billing – it was full of surprises for all three parties. The Tory 39% equalling their highest share from the pollster in 13 years; Labour maintaining their 35% in spite of everything and the Lib Dem 17% being their lowest ICM figure since before the Iraq War. Until now all the focus has been on David Cameron attracting Lib Dem supporters and…
But Cameron needs more than 39% before he can think of Number 10? After all the waiting the delayed figures from the Guardian’s July ICM survey are now out and they have the Tories moving forward, Labour holding steady but the Lib Dems falling back. These are the shares with comparisons on the last ICM poll which was in the Sunday Telegraph nearly three weeks ago. CON 39 (+3): LAB 35 (nc): LD 17 (-1).. Note that the reports that…
Why I’m putting more money on him going this year? Three news stories in the past couple of days have caused me to put more money on Tony Blair not surviving in the job until the end of the year. First the reports that Lord Levy – Blair’s tennis partner, Middle East envoy and fundraiser – did not answer police questions after his arrest but repeatedly said “no comment” indicate, surely, that this is getting serious. If this goes to…
The wait for the July ICM poll continues It’s now just on 2am and I am off to bed. There is no sign on the Guardian’s web pages of the July ICM survey even though they must have had the data for a couple of days. After suggesting yesterday that the paper was playing a form of striptease this appeared in our comments thread at 5.19pm yesterday evening – “Sorry to keep you waiting for the rest of the poll….