Will John Reid’s “baggage” withstand the intensive scrutiny?

Will John Reid’s “baggage” withstand the intensive scrutiny?

How worried should punters be about the Home Secretary’s past? When Tony Blair finally announces his intentions the starting gun will be fired on an event unprecedented in UK politics – a mass leadership election in a party that will effectively choose a new Prime Minister. For the last times that new leaders have been chosen while their parties were in power the electorates were restricted to just MPs. It was the respective parliamentary parties that chose Jim Callaghan after…

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Could Brown be scuppered again by poor poll numbers?

Could Brown be scuppered again by poor poll numbers?

Would he still get it if polls showed a leadership rival in the lead? With the Telegraph and the Independent both having big articles this morning talking up a potential John Reid leadership bid could Gordon Brown’s chances of taking the top job be hit by opinion polls showing that he was behind a rival? For the Chancellor has not got a good record in leadership polls in spite of the efforts by his supporters to over-state the importance of…

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Guest slot on the Labour leadership by Paul Linford

Guest slot on the Labour leadership by Paul Linford

Could Johnson be the kingmaker, not the king? In the wake of last week’s terror raids, most Labour leadership speculation has inevitably centred on whether the episode has boosted the chances of Home Secretary John Reid – not least on this blog. In my regional newspaper columns this weekend, I myself wrote that momentum is building behind a Reid candidature, although I think it will take sharp drop in Labour’s poll ratings to persuade Labour members to opt for him…

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Will Tony keep quiet if PM Brown “goes off mission”?

Will Tony keep quiet if PM Brown “goes off mission”?

Could Blair be to Gordon what Heath was to Maggie? Tony Blair has been such a dominating figure in British politics for so long that it’s hard imagining what things are going to be like when he and Cherie have moved to Connaught Square and Gordon, assuming it is he, is the undisputed master at Number 10. Heath was still in his 50s when Maggie beat him in the 1975 leadership election and throughout her years he remained a vocal…

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Are the Tories about to lose their poll lead?

Are the Tories about to lose their poll lead?

Will Cameron’s absence and Reid’s profile turn the position round? During the past four months there have been twenty one consecutive voting intention polls from five different pollsters all showing a Tory lead – the party’s best polling performance for a decade and a half. The margins have been between two and ten points and the highest Labour share has been 35. But is this all about to change? Could one or two of the next scheduled polls have Labour…

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How the Korean missile punters lost out

How the Korean missile punters lost out

What happened when a political market went wrong? One of the biggest challenges running a betting market on events in the news is finding a mechanism that defines how the bet will be settled. With elections that is easy but with other markets problems can emerge as a big row involving the Dublin-based betting exchange, Tradesports, has shown. For at the start of July, until it was overshadowed by the tragic events in the Middle East, the main international story…

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Betting on a Reid “terror plot” boost

Betting on a Reid “terror plot” boost

Is the Home Secretary worth his 2nd favourite status? The increased prominence that John Reid is getting as a result of his handling of the terror plot has caused his price on the Betfair betting exchange to tighten sharply. He started the day at about 13/1 and as of 2030 the last recorded trade on Betfair was at 4/1. The price has eased a touch since then but Reid is now the firm second favourite behind Gordon Brown to succeed…

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Will politics be the same if the NOTW is tamed?

Will politics be the same if the NOTW is tamed?

Who’ll win – who’ll lose if the tabloids are constrained? It has struck me over the past 24 hours that the current case involving alleged phone intercepts and the News of the World could have a dramatic and long-lasting effect on British politics. Just look back at what has happened this year that was sparked off by the tabloids and you get a sense of the scale of these papers’ activities. The five people featured in the picture strip at…

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